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Tier 1
1)Christian McCaffrey
Christian McCaffrey averaged 8.6 more PPR points per game than the next best RB last season (D. Cook). Is he going to catch 116 passes again? No. If he catches 90 or so, he is still likely to be the preeminent fantasy player at the position.
Tier 2
2) Saquon Barkley
3) Ezekiel Elliott
4) Alvin Kamara
I think you can pick the names in this tier out of a hat. You can rank them in any order and
make a good argument for it.
Barkley put up a casual 1400 total yards while playing a good portion of the season injured. He’s arguably the most talented RB in football.
Ezekiel Elliott is going to do what he does. He has been top five at the position in three out of four seasons. He never misses time and he’s part of a loaded offense. Elliott is the safest RB in this tier.
Kamara played through a bad knee injury last season which explains why his explosiveness disappeared. Despite that, he ranked eighth in PPR PPG.
Tier 3
5) Dalvin Cook
6) Miles Sanders
7) Clyde Edwards-Helaire
8) Joe Mixon
9) Derrick Henry
Dalvin Cook is one of the most talented running backs in football. He has also missed 19 of a possible 48 games in his three NFL seasons. If he plays most of the games, he is an elite building block for any fantasy team.
I’ve seen mostly negative coverage on Miles Sanders this summer and I don’t really know why. He’s clearly a dynamic playmaker and he doesn’t have much competition for touches. After Jordan Howard’s injury in week 9, Sanders averaged 16.3 PPG. Boston Scott should slice into his workload a little bit, but I think there is more feature back appeal here than a lot of others seem to believe.
I almost ranked Clyde Edwards-Helaire at the top of this tier. I don’t have any big analysis here. Andy Reid has rarely ever failed any of us with regards to productivity at the RB position and word out of Kansas City is they believe he is as good as Brian Westbrook. Giddy up.
We are waiting for Joe Mixon to put together a whole great season in the pros instead of samples of greatness. With that said, the Bengals have largely stunk the last two seasons and Mixon has managed 2,888 total yards and 14 touchdowns in that time frame. He was also RB4 in the second half of last season. If he can put it all together for a full season and Joe Burrow can breathe life into the Bengals offense, Mixon’s ceiling is limitless.
There is an alternate universe that exists where Derrick Henry catches 55-60 passes in a season and smashes everything.
Tier 4
10) Nick Chubb
11) Kenyan Drake
12) Austin Ekeler
13) Aaron Jones
14) Josh Jacobs
15) James Conner
This tier is the most volatile one. All these guys have RB1 upside and have clear red flags. Nick Chubb is an extremely gifted runner who is possibly going to be a zero in the passing game. I’m not saying you shouldn’t spend a high pick on Nick Chubb, but just know that you are completely relying on his running.
All signs point up for Kenyan Drake. Arizona’s rushing attack was 2nd in DVOA. Kliff Kingsbury and Kyler Murray combine to form one of the brightest QB/HC duos in the NFL and Drake caught nearly four passes a game last season for the Cardinals. A small part of me just can’t shake the fact that no coach, at any levels, has ever been willing to make him the undisputed feature guy. That might be an irrational concern that Drake can put to bed with a full season continuation of his monster 2019 second half.
Targets are worth more than carries in any kind of PPR format. Given how the Chargers use Ekeler, I think his floor is stable. With that said, he is a massive regression risk. He caught 92 passes and 8 touchdowns last season. Both of those numbers are likely to fall especially given that LA downgraded at QB.
If Aaron Jones scores 19+ touchdowns again, I will print this out on a piece of paper, put some hot sauce on it and eat it. Isn’t no way in hell he does that again.
Josh Jacobs is essentially a slightly lesser Nick Chubb in my opinion. They are great runners in questionable offenses who don’t project to catch a ton of passes.
Tier 5
16) Todd Gurley
17) Mark Ingram
18) David Johnson
19) Chris Carson
20) Leonard Fournette
21) Jonathan Taylor
22) Le’Veon Bell
23) David Montgomery
24) Devin Singletary
Todd Gurley is currently going at pick 29 right now. That’s a big “NO” for me, but I see the appeal. The Falcons should score a ton of points and he doesn’t have a lot of competition for reps. I can’t justify paying a top 30 pick for him given how cooked he looked last year, but there’s a decent enough chance spending that kind of capital on him pays off.
If we had the normal training camp and such this year, Ingram might be a prime candidate to get usurped by his backup, J.K. Dobbins. As is, Ingram is going to get a lot of touches in a great Baltimore offense.
David Johnson ran like he had a piano strapped to his back for a good portion of last season. If he has anything left, he’s in a good situation for fantasy production.
Chris Carson was a lot more appealing before the Seahawks signed Carlos Hyde. His fumbling and his injury concerns make him a high risk/moderate reward investment.
Leonard Fournette got 100 targets last year and only scored 3 touchdowns. Both of those things seem like they are going to regress to the mean. He volumed his way to a top 12 finish. I guess, in theory, he should be reliable because there isn’t a lot of competition for touches, but he’s a guy I’m not thrilled to draft.
Jonathan Taylor running behind that Colts offensive line against that early season schedule could pay immediate dividends.
If you’re drafting Le’Veon Bell, you’re doing so based PURELY on his volume. If you want to trust Adam Gase to give him a consistent, heavy workload, be my guest.
I could type the same thing for David Montgomery that I typed for Le’Veon Bell. Matt Nagy isn’t a maniac, but volume is the only real appeal to Montgomery on an offense that is Allen Robinson and little else.
Devin Singletary is a good and fun player but goal line and passing game concerns make him a risk. Buffalo drafting Zack Moss didn’t help his cause.
Tier 6
26)Kareem Hunt
27) Raheem Mostert
28) J.K. Dobbins
29) DeAndre Swift
30) Cam Akers
31) Tevin Coleman
32) James White
33) Tarik Cohen
34) Duke Johnson
35) Antonio Gibson
Kareem Hunt is one of the most gifted runningbacks in football. He’s going to get plenty of touches in Kevin Stefanski’s scheme and they’re willing to trot him out there in the slot at times. Also, if something happens to Nick Chubb, Hunt is a league winning type of player.
The Niners gave Raheem Mostert a pay raise which might indicate that they want to give him the ball more. They still have a few capable backs and Mostert is likely providing nothing in the pass game.
I can see J.K. Dobbins closely mirroring Gus Edwards production from last season. 700 yards and 5 touchdowns or so.
I like the Lions offensive players. I like DeAndre Swift as a player. I want to rank him higher but then remember that Matt Patricia is the head coach.
I’m not in on Ronald Jones like a lot of people are but if the Buccaneers offense is good, there is sneaky TD potential here. Until proven otherwise, he has feet for hands so don’t expect much in the passing game.
I have no idea what to make of Cam Akers. People who know more than me swear by the talent, but I don’t think Darrell Henderson is just going to disappear. If he is the lead back in LA, he likely blows past this ranking.
While I view Tevin Coleman and Raheem Mostert as similar in caliber, Mostert is going 3 rounds ahead of Coleman. While I don’t really want either player that much, I will have some exposure to Coleman.
James White is Mr. Reliable. I don’t expect Cam Newton to throw the ball to White as much as Tom Brady did, but White is going to get his targets and his snap count might rise with the Patriots RB depth chart looking the way it does.
Tarik Cohen’s efficiency crashed last season, but he still averaged 6.5 targets a game. I don’t think there’s a lot of harm done if you have him as your RB3/4.
I will never understand how teams see how effective Duke Johnson is with his touches and decide to not give him more of them. Either way, he’s a flex type with upside for more if David Johnson gets injured again.
Antonio Gibson was the hardest player to rank in this entire piece. The hype has gotten crazy since the Washington football team released Derrius Guice. There is Austin Ekeler usage appeal with Gibson here but the Washington football team is a mess so who knows. If he hits, he could make you rich.
Tier 7
36) Darrell Henderson
37) Marlon Mack
38) Chase Edmonds
39) Tony Pollard
40) Alexander Mattison
41) Kerryon Johnson
42) Adrian Peterson
43) Damien Harris
44) Zack Moss
45) Philip Lindsay
46) Matt Breida
47) Jordan Howard
48) Boston Scott
49) Ke’Shawn Vaughn
50) Latavius Murray
The Rams don’t seem too sold on Darrell Henderson’s talent, as evidenced by them picking Cam Akers in round 1 of the NFL draft, but as mentioned earlier, a lead back on this team could be a difference maker.
Marlon Mack is a better real-life player than he is a fantasy player. He’s a good runner but they don’t use him in the passing game much and he should cede a lot of touches to Jonathan Taylor.
Given how good the Cardinals running game is, Chase Edmonds might have random RB2 weeks even as Kenyan Drake’s backup. As it is, he is ranked here because he’s a league winner type if Drake goes down.
I think Tony Pollard would be an upper echelon starting runningback if given the opportunity. He’s explosive, makes quick cuts and is very good at making people miss. If Ezekiel Elliott goes down, Pollard is a potential league winner.
If adjustment periods for rookies causes issues this year, Kerryon Johnson could return good value where he is going. He’s talented but has had injury issues. As much as Matt Patricia is a bane of my existence, I don’t mind throwing a mid to late-ish round dart on Kerryon Johnson.
Adrian Peterson is going to somehow fall into 200-plus carries until the year 2050.
Sony Michel is injured, and an old Lamar Miller is Damien Harris’ only real competition on the depth chart.
The same concerns about Devin Singletary apply to Zack Moss. How much is Josh Allen’s reticence about throwing the ball to his running backs and goal line proficiency going to cut into production from Moss? I do think there a decent enough chance that Moss is better than Singletary. The Bills backfield is one that I’m generally looking to avoid.
Philip Lindsay needs a Melvin Gordon injury to matter in fantasy.
I’ve underestimated Jordan Howard every single year he has been in the league, so I fully expect him to make me look goofy again. I like Matt Breida as a player but he’s competing for touches behind Jordan Howard and playing behind a shitty OL.
Boston Scott is a good player and Philadelphia keeping him as their #2 back shows you how they feel about him.
LeSean McCoy signing with the Bucs really dampens any excitement about Keshawn Vaughn’s 2020 potential.
Latavius Murray is still on of the league’s most valuable handcuffs.
Just missed: LeSean McCoy, DeAndre Washington, Bryce Love, AJ Dillon, Joshua Kelley
*You can follow the author of the piece on twitter @Klew24
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