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Author: Kevin Lewis (@Klew24)
Tier 1
1) Patrick Mahomes
2) Lamar Jackson
There isn’t much to say about Patrick Mahomes that hasn’t already been said. I’ll say this though. Mahomes TD rate regressed from an absurdly good 8.6 to a regular old great number of 5.4%. Lamar Jackson’s TD rate in 2019 was 9.0%. Regression likely will hit him as well, but his situation and his running ability offset that a bit. Running quarterbacks are a cheat code in fantasy and nobody provides the passing/running dual threat that Jackson does.
Tier 2
3) Dak Prescott
4) Russell Wilson
5) Deshaun Watson
Prescott has finished top 12 in every season he has been a starter in the NFL (6th, 11th, 10th, 2nd)
Last year he was third in points per game (Jackson, Deshaun Watson). After adding Ceedee Lamb and replacing painfully slow Jason Witten, the Cowboys are loaded across the board with talented pass catchers. Travis Frederick is a big loss, but they are returning their other four linemen.
I have a whole lot of gripes with Seattle’s offensive philosophy, most of which start with their commitment to running the air out of the ball despite having one of the game’s preeminent talents at the QB position. With that said, Wilson has finished as a top five QB in two of the last three seasons, including a #1 overall finish in 2017. He has the weapons around him to flourish on those occasions that Seattle decides to throw the damn ball.
It was splitting hairs figuring out the order for this tier of quarterbacks as you can legitimately flip a coin when debating them. Deshaun comes in third because Bill O’Brien traded away DeAndre Hopkins for a broken running back and a second-round pick and the current receivers he has are SEVERE injury risks. That risk brings his floor down a little. He is still a stud, but he might have to deal with a few days in which Will Fuller and Brandin Cooks are both on the sideline in street clothes.
Tier 3
6) Kyler Murray
7) Josh Allen
8) Carson Wentz
9) Matt Ryan
A 3500 passing yard/600 rushing yards/30 touchdown season seems doable for Kyler. I can’t justify drafting an unproven QB where he is currently going (round 6), so I’m not going to have shares. With that said, I understand why the hype is what it is.
If Josh Allen improves his passing to “league average” kind of levels, he can take a leap into tier 2. The rushing ability is there as he finished third in rushing yards among QBs last season and has 17 rushing touchdowns in the last two seasons.
I don’t know if Wentz will ever get back to performing how he did in 2017 before his injury, but that ceiling is still there, and he was still good despite having the Migos feat. Zach Ertz as his WR corps.
Matt Ryan is boring, but he has an extremely stable game to game floor in terms of his attempts and yards gained. Game scripts should help his production since Atlanta’s defense stinks, he has a ton of weapons and he plays most of his games indoors. He’s not my cup of tea since his ceiling isn’t super high, but his floor is super high if that’s what appeals to you.
Tier 4:
10) Matthew Stafford
11) Cam Newton
12) Daniel Jones
13) Ben Roethlisberger
14) Jared Goff
15) Tom Brady
16) Jimmy Garoppolo
Health risk is the only reason Matthew Stafford isn’t higher. Stafford averaged 24.8 points per game before the back injury derailed his season. His 16-game pace was 5000 yards and 38 touchdowns. If you have a young QB you think will break out, pairing Stafford with him might not be the worst idea.
In every season Cam Newton has played 16 games, he’s been a top 5 fantasy quarterback. I think the same idea as Stafford applies to him except for the fact that Newton has less talent around him.
Daniel Jones scored at least 35 points in 33% of his starts (4 out of 12) and he was on a 372-rushing yard full season pace. Maybe if he runs a little more and cuts the fumbles, he can take a significant leap. He is the exact type of upside chance I like to take.
In Roethlisberger’s last full season (2018), he was the No. 3 Fantasy quarterback with 5,129 passing yards, 34 touchdowns, 16 interceptions and three rushing touchdowns. He’s old and it could fall off the rails at any time, but I don’t mind spending a late pick to see whether it does, or it doesn’t. For a single season, not many quarterbacks have a higher ceiling than Ben.
I think Goff will likely finish higher than he is listed here but his ranking here shows you how deep the position is. In his four worst games, Goff had 12 total points and in the rest of his starts he averaged 23 points a game. His touchdown rate also declined to 3.5 which is 2% less than what he produced the two prior years. If regression to the mean happens, Goff’s upside is higher than people realize.
I’m out on Tom Brady for the simple fact that he’s 43. He is also coming off a season with a 6.6 YPA and going to a team who has a considerably worse OL than the one he left. The wide receivers are undoubtedly great, but I’ll let someone else take their chances on him.
Jimmy Garoppolo is probably the single most boring option listed. If for some reason the 49ers defense regresses, maybe that changes. Until then, he’s nothing but QB2 in a Superflex or 2-QB league fodder.
Tier 5
17) Drew Brees
18) Ryan Tannehill
19) Aaron Rodgers
20) Baker Mayfield
There’s a good possibility Brees makes me look silly for ranking him here, but I’m always fine being the low man on a 40+ year old quarterback.
I had no idea where to rank Tannehill. On one hand, he was a top 3 fantasy QB in the final six weeks of last season. On the other hand, he averaged 123 yards per game in the postseason and was generally an afterthought as Tennessee fed Derrick Henry the ball repeatedly. There is probably a happy medium here, but the only thing I feel confident saying about Tannehill is that the 7.7% TD rate is going to regress.
The Packers showed you what they feel about Aaron Rodgers at the current moment when they spent their first two draft picks on his eventual successor and a running back. They want the ball in his hands less. Regardless of how dumb that is, believe them. Don’t be the guy spending a round eight pick on him.
Kevin Stefanski is probably going to want to feed Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt early and often. I don’t know what to make of Mayfield because his 2018 and 2019 seasons were the difference of extremes. Having a play caller who isn’t in over his head in the way Freddie Kitchens was should help.
Tier 6
21) Teddy Bridgewater
22) Kirk Cousins
23) Philip Rivers
24) Gardner Minshew
25) Sam Darnold
26) Joe Burrow
27) Drew Lock
28) Derek Carr
If the Panthers defense is as bad as it looks on paper, Bridgewater could be a sneaky play especially in Superflex/2-QB leagues. He has a good receiving corps that accentuates his strengths as well.
Kirk Cousins is every bit as boring as Jimmy Garoppolo is. Aim higher.
Philip Rivers has played behind a lot of bad offensive lines. The Colts line is as good a line as he has played behind in quite some time. However, TY Hilton is already having health issues which doesn’t bode well.
Gardner Minshew’s new play caller, Jay Gruden, coaxed three top six finished out of Andy Dalton and Kirk Cousins who are both similarly limited in terms of arm talent. Jacksonville also projects to be terrible which should lead to a lot of garbage time opportunities. It wouldn’t surprise me if Minshew has a season comparable to Blake Bortles 2014 output.
As long as Adam Gase is the head coach, I’m not touching Sam Darnold. Throw in five new offensive line starters and two brand new receivers and it becomes even easier to not draft him. I’m still a staunch believer in the talent but that’s a big “no” for me, dawg.
Given the lack of practice time, betting on a rookie QB in this environment is just a bet I’m not willing to take. Joe Burrow could make me eat my words, but I’ll view this one from the outside.
I don’t know what to make of Drew Lock at all, but I expect Denver to run the ball a ton.
Tier 7:
29) Tyrod Taylor
30) Justin Herbert
31) Ryan Fitzpatrick
32) Dwayne Haskins
33) Nick Foles
34) Mitchell Trubisky
Summary: Practice self-love and don’t draft any of these guys unless you play in a four QB league. Also, I can’t believe Ryan Fitzpatrick is still in the damn NFL.
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