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Author: Kevin Lewis (@Klew24)
In my opinion, the wide receiver is the deepest position in fantasy. I don’t think you have to aggressively target wide receivers as you can just let the position play out the way it’s going to. I think it’s the easiest of the three positions to formulate a plan for given the depth of the position.
Running back is so volatile that a lot of them are getting pushed into territory they don’t belong in for the sake of “FOMO”, so that pushes WR down. There are a lot of ways one can attack WR this year and there aren’t many WRs, in my opinion, that have enough red flags to the point where you should avoid them
Tier 1
1)Michael Thomas
2)Davante Adams
3)Julio Jones
4)Tyreek Hill
Michael Thomas was number 1 in Yards per route run last season. I know people make jokes about his route tree and his style of play, but the man is cold.
If Green Bay wasn’t so hellbent on mirroring the 2009 New York Jets, I’d be tempted to rank Davante Adams at 1. Even with that, it still wouldn’t be surprising if Adams did finish at 1. He’s still Rodgers only trusted target and he’s still ticketed to get around 10-12 targets a game.
I don’t know when the decline is coming for the 31-year-old Jones, but he’s still rocking as arguably the league’s best wide receiver. The Falcons saw a few departures in the skill player portion of their offense, so Jones could conceivably see an uptick in target share. I will offer a piece of friendly advice. If faced with the decision of Julio vs a running back you aren’t terribly sure about, just take Jones. He is bankable and stress free.
Tyreek Hill isn’t going to be the guy getting 10-12 targets a game but he has ranked in the top 5 in Yards Per Route Run in 3 of the last 4 seasons. He also battled injuries last season so that might have contributed to his downturn in targets, but Hill is the most explosive offensive player in football, and he is playing with the league’s best quarterback.
Tier 2
5)Chris Godwin
6)DJ Moore
7)Allen Robinson
8)Adam Thielen
9)Kenny Golladay
10)Amari Cooper
11)Juju Smith-Schuster
12)DeAndre Hopkins
13)Mike Evans
Chris Godwin made me look very smart last year as I continually touted him all summer. I took him in roughly 75% of my leagues and had a very good season partially because of his exploits. With that said, I’m not terribly excited to draft him this season because of how expensive he is. With that said, his skillset fits what big-age Tom Brady wants to do. The Buccaneers are bound to be less aggressive and likely will not be trailing 21-0 every week so Godwin’s downside is probably greater than most are willing to admit.
Teddy Bridgewater loves to throw the ball short. DJ Moore loves to work in the short areas of the field and is a YAC monster. Carolina’s defense looks like a good bet to stink so there could be a lot of game situation benefits to starting Moore weekly.
I fiddled around with Allen Robinson’s ranking quite a bit in the process of making this piece. I had him at various spots from 7-15 throughout trying to figure out where to rank him. I hope that Nick Foles wins the starting job because the talent/volume combination that Allen Robinson brings isn’t matched by many. Side note, Robinson has caught most of his passes from Blake Bortles and Mitch Trubisky. Yuck.
I’m not in a rush to draft DeAndre Hopkins this year. He changed teams in a year with compromised practice and preparation time and I remain skeptical that the Cardinals are going to target him the way Houston did. With that said, he is one of the game’s preeminent WR talents and going to play with one of the brightest young quarterbacks in the league.
Adam Thielen has two seasons under his belt in which he saw over 100 targets. He has been a WR1 in PPR in both of those seasons. Barring injury, he’s going to be targeted a ton this season especially now that Stefon Diggs departed to Buffalo. Getting him in round 3, where he is currently going on average, is a blessing.
Despite Matthew Stafford’s unfortunate injury issues, Kenny Golladay led the league in touchdowns last season (11). He was also seventh in receiving yards with a sparkling 1,190. He’s one of the league’s most dangerous contested catch threats and if Stafford stays reasonably healthy, it’s fair to wonder how high his ceiling is.
Amari Cooper is so much more tolerable if you just accept him for what he is and just don’t even look at his points production from week to week. Just look at the back of his football card at the end of the season and appreciate it for what it is. He can go for 30 or 0 in each game, but he’s in the league’s #2 passing offense from last season and presumably healthy unlike the second half of last season. I think it’s a likely bet he finishes as a WR1 even if the road to getting there makes you rip your hair out.
Remember when Juju Smith-Schuster was going in round 1 last summer? Nothing has really changed with the player outside of the fact that we know he can’t succeed with Mason Rudolph and a guy named fuckin Duck throwing him the ball. Ben is back, for now, and if he manages to stay on the field the whole season, Juju represents a massive discount opportunity in round 4, where he is currently going on average.
Even if I’m not a believer in Evans fit with Tom Brady, he’s a still a monster and is still practically a mortal lock for 1,000 plus yards.
Tier 3
14)Calvin Ridley
15)Odell Beckham
16)AJ Brown
17)Tyler Lockett
18)Terry McLaurin
19)Cooper Kupp
Atlanta has three noteworthy targets at this current juncture and one of them is a relatively unproven tight end (Hayden Hurst). Given Ridley’s talent level, Atlanta’s likelihood to find themselves in many shootouts and his likely target share, Ridley is an extremely attractive buy this season.
Beckham clearly wasn’t healthy last season and Baker Mayfield’s play fell off a cliff. They still aggressively targeted him down the field and that figures to remain the same with new OC, Kevin Stefanksi, on board.
AJ Brown is my favorite young wide receiver in football. I am conservatively ranking him because I have no idea what the Titans pass to run ratio is going to look like. He did have one of the best rookie seasons for a WR, is a physical freak and clearly has a rapport with Ryan Tannehill. His efficiency isn’t going to be as otherworldly as it was last season but his talent and a potential uptick in targets might make any concerns moot.
Russell Wilson and Tyler Lockett have a telepathic kind of chemistry. While Lockett is never going to be a 150-target guy, he’s wildly efficient and Wilson aggressively targets everybody down the field.
Terry McLaurin has very minimal competition for targets and has a chemistry with Dwayne Haskins, as they’ve played together in both college and now the pros. McLaurin ranked 14
in yards per route run last season and could see a boost given Haskins takes a step forward from year 1 to 2.
Cooper Kupp is a very boring but solid WR2.
Tier 4
20)Robert Woods
21) TY Hilton
22)DJ Chark
23)DK Metcalf
24)Michael Gallup
25)Courtland Sutton
26)Will Fuller
Robert Woods is like Cooper Kupp. He’s a boring and solid pick. With Cooks gone, he feels like a lock for at least 120 targets.
I don’t feel great about ranking Hilton here, but he should lead the team in targets, and he does get a QB upgrade.
DJ Chark came out of nowhere last season to lead the Jaguars in every relevant receiving category. There is number 1 WR upside here, in real life and in fantasy. We will see whether Gardner Minshew and Jay Gruden can help him achieve that. DK Metcalf reminds me of Dez Bryant. I might be too low on him, but I don’t think he’s going to get the volume necessary for a huge second season breakout.
The Cowboys drafting Ceedee Lamb is helping keep Michael Gallup’s ADP in check. Gallup was sixth in receiving yards per game and nothing about his situation really changed. I see a buying opportunity with Gallup.
I love Courtland Sutton’s ability and his ranking here underscores just how deep the WR position is. I need to see more from Drew Lock and I expect the Broncos to run the ball a lot. Those are the reasons he isn’t higher.
DeAndre Hopkins is out of town and we know what Will Fuller is capable of when healthy. The injury risk is still there but he is a potential league winning pick.
Tier 5
27)Marquise Brown
28)Keenan Allen
29)Jamison Crowder
30)Davante Parker
31)Stefon Diggs
32)Jarvis Landry
I am not a physical fitness professional but hearing about these 20 pounds that Marquise Brown gained in the offseason makes me pause. With that said, he has game breaking speed and if he sees an uptick in snaps, a rookie to sophomore leap in production isn’t out of the question.
Keenan Allen is one of the league’s singular route runners. He also took a QB downgrade and more neutral game scripts might lead to the Chargers throwing less as a whole. Allen is a pretty clear avoid for me in drafts this season.
Jamison Crowder has a good rapport with Sam Darnold and that is important in a climate such as the one we are in. Also, someone has to catch the passes in NY.
DeVante Parker really came on strong last season once Preston Williams got injured. He averaged 100 receiving yards a game after Williams ACL injury. Two Dolphins WRs opted out of the season due to COVID concerns so his target share looks stable as of right now.
Stefon Diggs is switching teams and taking a downgrade as far as passers go. Pass.
I would rank Jarvis Landry higher If not for his injury concerns but at peak health, his target share is stable and he’s a high floor option.
Tier 6
33)Diontae Johnson
34)Christian Kirk
35)Julian Edelman
36)Marvin Jones
37)Tyler Boyd
38)Brandin Cooks
39)Brandon Aiyuk
40)AJ Green
41)Henry Ruggs
42)Desean Jackson
43)Ceedee Lamb
44)Jalen Reagor
45)John Brown
I’d rather buy Christian Kirk at his ADP than DeAndre Hopkins at his, if I want exposure to the Arizona Cardinals passing offense.
I don’t expect Edelman to get the same kind of targets he was getting with Tom Brady under center, but he should still lead the Patriots in targets and he still gets open frequently.
With every training camp report I read out of Philadelphia, I get more excited about Jalen Reagor’s 2020 prospects.
In the games Marvin Jones scored over 10 PPR points, he scored 23 points per game. Jones is a perfect WR3-4.
Tyler Boyd isn’t the world’s most efficient wide receiver and he probably stands to lose a few targets, barring another AJ Green injury. He is still very reliable and there is a chance that a rookie QB leans on a slot guy.
Brandin Cooks has put together 1,000-yard reasons for 3 different NFL teams, which is a very impressive feat. I’d be higher on Cooks if not for the switching teams in the middle of a global pandemic.
Brandon Aiyuk’s pulled hamstring dampens camp optimism but if he gets back at a reasonable time, he’s still in a good spot given how depleted the Niners WR corps is.
AJ Green was so fun to watch at the peak of his powers despite Andy Dalton’s limitations holding him back a little. I guess, in theory, that he has a lot of upside, but I’ll believe it when I see it at this point.
Tyrell Williams’ injury should mean more targets for Henry Ruggs, who apparently has been lining up all over the place at Raiders camp.
Desean Jackson, if he stays healthy, could possibly be the most targeted non-Zach Ertz Eagles pass catcher.
All the reports out of camp have been about how explosive Ceedee Lamb is. It should be noted that Amari Cooper is nursing an injury, even if the Dallas Cowboys don’t think it is serious.
A secondary pass catching option in the Bills offense isn’t worth going out of your way to draft, so John Brown is off my radar.
The Rest
45)Breshad Perriman
46)Golden Tate
47)Curtis Samuel
48)Emmanuel Sanders
49)Sterling Shepard
50)Darius Slayton
51)Michael Pittman
52)N’Keal Harry
53)Allen Lazard
54)Preston Williams
55)Mike Williams
56)Randall Cobb
57)Hunter Renfrow
58)Parris Campbell
59)Deebo Samuel
Breshad Perriman has an easy route to a lot of targets on a team that should be trailing a lot. There is sneaky upside here.
I love Curtis Samuel’s game from a real-life perspective. Assuming they give him more high-percentage targets, his ceiling is probably a little higher than we realize.
Hunter Renfrow ranked 11 in yards per route run with 2.09. He had 35/490/4 in 8 games after week 8. Parris Campbell is someone to watch, especially from a dynasty perspective.
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