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For the published version of this post:
Part 1:
Part Two:
Part Three:
31. Dennis Smith Jr, Point Guard, New York Knicks
Age: 21
As a start of their rebuilding project, the Dallas Mavericks utilized a lottery pick in 2017 on the explosive point guard from Fayetteville, NC. All of the tools DSJ exhibited to get stamped with the “freak athlete” label coming out of NC State are still intact two years later. His floor feel as an initiator, while far from elite at the position, is still underestimated. He is a playmaker who has more room to grow as he matures as a lead guard than given credit for. Smith’s lightning quick burst on his first step allows him to get into the teeth of the defense at will and force defensive rotations. Learning to consistently make the proper reads off those drives is something Knick fans hope he improves on with additional repetitions. Learning the proper time to attack and when to get your teammates involved is a tango each young initiator has to dance with, at lower levels of basketball most of these guys can coast off pure raw natural talent and see good results.
Since the one and done rule was instituted in 2006, we have enough historical precedence to realize when it comes to young point guards, you have to give them time to develop. Teams not willing to work through the inevitable growing pains that come with the position of young lead ball handlers could easily be looking at a sunken asset before their rookie contracts expire. Mike Conley, Kyle Lowry, and D’angelo Russell are all prime recent examples of players taking a roundabout path to become effective NBA starting point guards. They provide a glimpse of foresight into why we shouldn’t count DSJ out for the count just yet.
Be that as it may, DSJ’s lackadaisical effort level on defense, questionable shot IQ, and shooting consistency are largely genuine inquiries that still need to be improved upon after two years in the league. For him it will come down to simplifying his shooting mechanics and ironing out some of his bad habits, such as over-dribbling.
Smith’s lack of length is also a major issue. He doesn’t consistently exploit his high class leaping ability. He’s demonstrated the body control to make these high degree of difficulty, yet low percentage finishes. He’s a bull in a china shop, that never shies away from taking on take opposing defenders head on at the rim, which isn’t an equation for sustainability for someone his size.
Per CleaningTheGlass, DSJ ranked below league average in the 41st percentile among point guards finishing at the basket last season. With his athletic prowess, that number needs to improve to unlock the extra gear in his upside. According to NBA.com, Smith Jr. connected on just 28% of his catch and shoot threes last season, putting him in the 25th percentile in the league. DSJ’s in between game also is nonexistent. For someone in the lane as often as he is, doesn’t look comfortable taking floaters; finishing in just the second percentile on floaters at (19.6%) a year ago.
The Knickerbockers are now heavily invested in the short term development of Dennis Smith going forward whether they like it or not. He should be given every chance to turn the trajectory of his young career around, given the current state of affairs of the franchise. If things go well, he could turn out to be a statement to the outside world. Proving the franchise can actually develop young players, the most critical step to bringing back a respectable product to Madison Square Garden. If things go well, he could turn out to be a statement to the outside world. Proving the team can actually develop young players, the most critical step to bringing a respectable product to Madison Square Garden.
[youtube https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=01BqNThVx4E&w=750&h=422]
30. Kyle Kuzma, Forward, Los Angeles Lakers
Age: 22
After being drafted 27th in the 2017 Draft, not many foresaw Kuzmania becoming a thing in short order for Laker fans, but it certainly did. Kuzma’s developmental arc thus far from a borderline second round pick has seen him transform from a borderline second pick out of Utah to a legitimate offensively skilled forward. He’s already carved out a role in the NBA during his rookie contract, a massive win for the Lakers organization late in the 1st round. Kuzma has stood out at times playing next to a couple of high pedigree lottery picks, most recently, Brandon Ingram & Lonzo Ball, more on them later.
To the blind eye, Kuzma at times has looked like the Lakers best young piece as. an underrated part of his repertoire happens to be just how vast his bag of scoring tricks are Kuzma has a deep bag of tricks to get buckets with: runners, floaters, sky hooks, push shots, back door cuts. As someone that doesn’t win strictly with his athleticism, he’s proven to be much craftier than given credit for. Kuzma has shown the propensity to be a walking bucket, never one shy to hunt his own shot, he’s proven capable of putting up numbers in bunches. His performance against the Pistons on January 9th was one of the best scoring showcases anyone put on all season, especially while, Lebron James was still recovering from his groin injury. 41 points on 24 shots in 29 minutes without playing a single second in the 4th quarter is wildly impressive for anyone. Kuzma’s adjustment to playing besides Lebron was easily the cleanest transition on the team, as the spots he enjoys to attack on the court play as a natural complement to how Lebron’s brute force bends a defense.
The Flint, MI native only trailed Donovan Mitchell and John Collins among sophomores in scoring with 18.7 points per game. However, his efficiency from three-point range in season two regressed to 30% after shooting 36% from behind the arc in his rookie season. The swing skill for Kuzma is pretty simple at this point: How good of a shooter is he really? A career 30% shooter in college, his shooting sample has been mostly a mixed bag.
The Stepien’s Jackson Hoy wrote a great piece about how projecting future improvement with players is as much of a crapshoot as the rest of the draft. Kyle Kuzma has already proven all of the prognosticators wrong once about the level he could reach coming into the league, and by all accounts, the kid is a basketball junkie with an innate crave to be great.
[youtube https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GP6Fjf3bMuQ&w=750&h=422]
29. Jarrett Allen, Center, Brooklyn Nets
Age: 19
The Nets selected Jarrett Allen 22nd during the 2017 NBA Draft, with a first round pick acquired by Sean Marks after he traded Bojan Bogdanovic to the Wizards. Allen has a ridiculous lob radius. It hasn’t mattered whether it was D’angelo Russell, Spencer Dinwiddie or Caris Levert: Throw it up, and the former Texas Longhorn is throwing it down. Expect the same with his newest pick and roll partner, Kyrie Irving.
The Frow is already an elite protector of the rim, and is perhaps most well known at this point in this career for the awesome sizzle reel of All Stars he’s rejected point blank at the basket. However, as much as it would make the life of analyzing players future improvement easier if we could use a broad stroke of generalizations to assess fluid subjects such as all the variables that go into making you an effective defender at the NBA level, Jarrett Allen as a case study leads us to a perplexing crossroads. The tricky case of Allen’s impact defensively thus far has to be seen through two concurrent lenses: 1. His foot speed plus agility, which for a big man make him one of the most mobile big men in the league, capable of switching onto smaller guards and using his length as a nuisance when contesting jumpers.
The mobility allows you to dream of a scenario where his versatility could unlock many of the same doors Clint Capela has in a switch heavy defensive scheme 2. Recent reports out of summer league surrounding Allen indicate that he’s put on an additional 10 pounds of mass and muscle to help him survive in the trenches.
Proving the point that Allen is still early in his developmental process and is still too weak to dictate the physicality of the game in the post. The clearest evidence comes from the last time we saw Allen on the floor, during the Nets first round matchup against the Sixers where he was tasked with slowing down the Cameroonian behemoth down low that is Joel Embiid. Deandre Jordan being best friends with Kyrie Irving & Kevin Durant should end up dampening draft day value for Allen as his path towards a starters minutes workload just hit a speed bump. At the end of the day this is still a big man who won’t kill you with his free throw percentages (73% on 425 career attempts) and provides a stable anchor of blocks for your teams.
[youtube https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QgVqd9smfVg&w=750&h=422]
28. Bam Adebayo, Center, Miami Heat
Age: 21
The Heat selected Edrice "Bam" Adebayo with the 14th pick in the 2017 NBA Draft. In case you were wondering, his childhood nickname is in fact derived from Flinstones lore and the legendary Bam-Bam Rubble.
Chiseled frame with broad shoulders, Bam already has a physically mature frame compared to many other of his peers, can hang with most big men around the league. Love him or Hate him, John Calipari's recruiting track record of getting high level prospects to his program is among the upper echelon of coaches. The skill set optimization of all the recruits he brings to Lexington, that's another discussion for another day. Bam was one of the first players that caught my eye during the 2017 Summer League shortly after he made his professional debut, when you see a dude with shoulders like a greek god effortlessly pull out a euro-step in transition it tends to leave an impression! Impressive specimen who has the athleticism to consistently leak out and beat his man up and down the floor in transition.
Bam has flashed a growing level of passing acumen since he's entered the NBA, can make the rudimentary reads from the high post by hitting backdoor cutters or weak side shooters when defenses collapse his way. This is something the jettisoned malcontent Hassan Whiteside never showed any interest in doing during his time on South Beach. For reference, Adebayo accumulated 184 assists last season as a reserve, while Whiteside's cumulative high mark in his NBA career is 57 dimes. According to CleaningtheGlass Adebayo's 14.8 assist percentage ranked in the 83rd percentile for fellow big men.
Offensively, the Kentucky export overall still needs additional refinement of several parts of his game. His standout attribute happens to be his soft hands, which allows him to flourish as a vertical rim runner around the basket and grab dump-offs from his ball handlers. Although he doesn’t have a wide range of go-to post moves, he can still bully smaller defenders if he gets deep enough position in the post and finish with soft touch, and his motor does run hot on the glass. The jumpshot mechanics here aren't the ugliest, if he adds a consistent mid range with the rest of his skills, the positives on his outlook will begin to heavily outweigh the negatives.
Adebayo has the skill set of a modern center, in the body of a slightly undersized power forward, how well can he hold up as a rim protector will be the litmus test for his future impact. Regardless, Bam seems like a wide awake "sleeper" pick and a lottery ticket for much more.
[youtube https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qd3n0yowNvk&w=727&h=409]
27. Jaylen Brown, Forward, Boston Celtics
Age: 22
Lars Anderson, Michael Bowden, Blake Swihart, Ryan Lavarnway, Anthony Ranaudo, Casey Kelly, Deven Marerro, and let’s just throw Terry Rozier in there as well, just to name a few. What do these names all have in common? Hmmm. This is an article about basketball, however these are all players who’ve fallen victim to the Boston media hype machine. Diehard TDG readers will be familiar with the idea of buyer’s remorse when it usually comes to *some* of prospects coming out of the Red Sox farm system, because perhaps no one over rates their own up and coming players quite like the Boston media.
Respectively, at his own craft Jaylen Brown is already better on his own merits compared to many of the dudes above, but at times it’s felt like the perception among his local media saw him as a mix between Kawhi Leonard and Ta Nehisi Coates. Players can’t control the hype around them so this isn’t on him, but more of just a reflection of media perception can sway how fans feel about players.
At the time of the ‘16 NBA Draft, Brown was coming off a sub-optimal one and done season at Cal, part of which can be attributed to a lack of floor spacing. He was seen as an enticing wing with an exciting toolbox of raw skills. Compared to other one-and-done wings who have gone in the lottery in recent years, Brown’s combination of an NBA ready physique in the early stages of his career, mixed with the fluidity of his movements as a slasher and an open court athlete, created an immediate path to impact for Brown on a Celtics team that was already competitive.
Brown’s ultimate impact as a fantasy asset is still actively in question. He’s finished the past 2 years on ESPN’s 9cat player rater at 177 overall in 18-19, and the 176th ranked player in 17-18. Brown’s fantasy profile doesn’t seem to have an immediate path towards becoming a credible dynasty building block because nothing he does offensively distinguishes himself enough for fantasy super-stardom, to this point.
The translation of his shooting stroke coming into the league was a legit concern, after he shot 29% during his freshman campaign at Cal. So far, Brown has shot a cumulative 36.5% on 717 attempts from downtown in his young career. At first glance, that seems like a positive, but his lack of free throw efficiency (career 66% on 559 attempts) leads to additional skepticism about just how good of a shooter he really is.
Historical precedence tells us that middling free throw percentage doesn’t equate with being an above average three point shooter over time. In order for Brown to raise his value in fantasy, he’ll need to maintain his gains made on his perimeter shooting, while also improving his blocks+steals (combined 1.4 the past 2 years) to add surplus value to his fantasy profile.
Brown lacks “wiggle” in his game as a ball handler in tight half court settings, especially if he has to do anything other than attack closeouts on a straight line drive to the basket. He doesn’t project as a primary wing creator for himself or others, so naturally his upside will be attached to the stability of his shooting profile.
The departures of Al Horford & Kyrie Irving this summer have put the additional spotlight on where exactly Brown resides on his developmental path. If he can improve upon his already strong building blocks while showing growth as a ball handler and creator, the step backwards we assumed the Celtics will be taking this season shouldn’t be as drastic. Nonetheless, Jaylen Brown might fall under the umbrella of “better real life NBA player than fantasy player”. It must be said that when the dust settles, he should still end up comfortably in the range of one of the best five to ten players in the 2016 draft class, at worst. All things considered, that’s still a win for Danny Ainge & co.
[youtube https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QPjSf6fOB3o&w=750&h=422]
- Jonathan Isaac, Forward, Orlando Magic
While the most marketable and prominent faces of the league always tend to be players who carry large loads of the offensive burden on a nightly basis, when constructing a roster, finding the right players who can thrive in a complementary low usage superstar role player capacity becomes equally as important, particularly if the goal is maximizing high volume offensive players.
Defensive value, off-ball screening, cutting without the ball, playing as the roller in pick and roll, and the gravity of a floor spacer are just a few ways players can extract value while the ball isn’t in their possession. These are each an intrinsic layers to the game of basketball, facets that don’t show up in any box score or dominate the hot take sphere after any games. Yet, these are several of the parallels that illuminate on great teams that go far in the postseason.
After a nagging ankle injury plagued his rookie season to a total of 55 missed games, the health of his gimpy wheel was a major concern coming into year two for Isaac. The returns on his first real extended run of NBA basketball just so happened to coincide with the Magic making the playoffs for the first time since Dwight Howard was traded in the summer of 2012. Isaac is already an advanced defender for a 21 year old with barely over 100 games of NBA experience to his name. His Swiss army knife versatility on defense allows him to stay safe guarding isolation threats on an island, and also hold up as a one-on-one post defender, despite his incredibly thin frame.
Legitimate 3 & D wing players are a scarce prototype around the league that every team is seeking. Judah’s defensive value holds firm as a standalone trait that would keep him in the league even if he was a complete zero on offense. Listed at 6”11 with a 7”1 wingspan, Isaac theoretically has the frame to play center as a small-ball 5 in the NBA, but is nowhere close to being strong enough yet. His ability to add mass to his frame is obviously a huge key in the end product.
JI and Aaron Gordon for now make an effective, yet imperfect fit as a wing duo. Per basketball reference, the Magic finished eighth in the league in adjusted defensive rating, a direct reflection of their second half surge that led to a playoff berth for Orlando for the first time post Dwight Howard.
Even taking in part the sample from his freshman year at Florida State, Isaac has never been a primary scoring option. He goes through prolonged stretches on the court, when played out of position as a small forward on the perimeter where you’ll even forget he’s on the court due to his passivity. Isaac is comfortable handling the ball in transition, but has a basic dribble package and handle in the half court which at this point that only allows him to get to the basket on straight line drives.
Per NBA.Com’s Josh Cohen, “Before Jan. 31, the former Florida State standout shot just 30.8 percent from the right 3-point corner and 28 percent from the left side. From that date onward, he made 41.4 percent of his threes from the right corner and 33.3 percent from the alternate side.
From the NBA 3 point line, the Bronx, NY native is 33% shooter from deep”. Obviously he needs to improve, but it may be a rhythm and confidence thing for him. His jump shot mechanics give some reason for optimism, mixed in with the fact he’s been an 80& free throw shooter through his two year sample size.
Overall, Isaac remains one of the prospects I’m most intrigued with going forward due to the scalability of his defensive value, I believe at his peak he has top 50 fantasy value with a chance to be a monster in the stocks department. Going back to 2015, the only players in the NBA to record 100 steals and 100 blocks in the same season are: Andre Drummond (3x), Giannis (3x), Draymond (2x), Paul Milsap (1x), Anthony Davis (1x). Health permitting with a workload fit for a starter, I think he can break into rarified air.
[youtube https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QNTCnC_LO08&w=750&h=422]
- Zach Lavine, Guard, Chicago Bulls
After the late Flip Saunders selected him with the 13th pick in the ’14 Draft, Zach LaVine was originally 1/3 of the trio that once upon a time was looked at almost unanimously as THE most promising young core in the NBA with the Minnesota Timberwolves. Things change vociferously in the world of the NBA. Fast forward a couple years, a trade to the Windy City for Jimmy Butler, a torn ACL, and we’re finally starting to see a glimpse of LaVine’s tantalizing potential.
There aren’t many people walking the face of the earth who possess a 46-inch vertical with a sweet jumpshot to go along with it. It’s very easy to understand how one could get lost within the allure of LaVine’s toolbox of raw athleticism. The main attribute that comes to mind when you hear the name Zach LaVine is his otherworldly ability to jump out of the gym.
LaVine’s frame, particularly his lower body strength, allows him to get extraordinary lift from his legs on his jumper. This enables him to create separation necessary to get his pull up jumper off against bigger defenders with a high and quick release point.
According to cleaning the glass, LaVine ranked within the 70th percentile in overall three point shooting among qualified wing players; taking a deeper look into is numbers and the story becomes a bit more clear. His effective field goal percentage on pull up three pointers was 44.7%, compared to his eFG% on catch and shoot three pointers which was 54.8%. However, his frequency of these higher degree of difficulty pull up shots were double the figure of his C&S attempts because he was the main perimeter threat in the Chicago backcourt.
Additionally, according to NBA.com shot tracking tools, LaVine’s effectiveness also took a drastic dive based on the number of dribbles he took after receiving the ball. This brings additional credence to the reality that LaVine may be best suited as a secondary microwave scoring option who can get hot at any moment, as opposed to taking on the responsibility that comes as the main shot creating presence in a team setting.
[youtube https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HJZiox9l-wU&w=560&h=315]
- Lauri Markkanen, Forward, Chicago Bulls
Hailing from Finland, Lauri already takes the baton for the greatest European import from his motherland to make it in the NBA.
On volume, over his first 733 attempts through 2 seasons, Markkanen has stroked it at a clean 36% from the 3-point line. He’s already in the conversation already as one the most dangerous long range snipers in the league, independent of position, backed up by his shooting splits on the FIBA and NCAA levels.
The Fin is one of the rare big men that has the skills coordination to shoot off screens and pin downs. He possesses a clean stroke, with good mechanics and balance on his jumpshot, this makes him one of the easier offensive projections going forward from a dynasty perspective.
Far from an elite athlete based upon NBA standards, Markkanen is still a fairly fluid athlete with the ability to punish closeouts and smaller defenders in the post on switches. It’s safe to say there won’t be any All-Defensive teams in his future, due to below average lateral quickness, and lack of core strength at the moment. However I do think he has underrated team defense instincts, and as he gets stronger could improve on his pedestrian 0.6 blocks per game he’s averaged both years in the league. As he gets stronger, his ultimate upside is still based on how many minutes he can soak up effectively at the 5 in the future.
Still could possibly be a top-50 fantasy player starting as early as next year, if he could raise his overall efficiency and Chicago aids him by upgrading the point guard position and overall competence around him.
Every team in the league will be in the market for floor spacing big men who can open up the court for their guards and wings to have space to operate on the perimeter. Markkanen’s bankable shooting utility is valuable currency moving forward.
[youtube https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cJAk_klmiN0&w=750&h=422]
- Lonzo Ball, Guard, New Orleans Pellicans
Through his first 2 years in the NBA, it feels like everything that could’ve went wrong for Lonzo has. The 99 game sample we have thus far has accentuated the positive traits we knew he possessed watching his early development at Chino Hills & UCLA, such as his innate next level feel and understanding for the game on offense. In addition, a vastly underrated trait during the pre-draft process were his instincts and ability to fit into a team’s defensive philosophy as a havoc creator in the passing lanes.
On defense, it’s almost as if he plays a role reminiscent of a ball hawking safety looking to blow up plays in the backfield before they even have a chance to materialize with the way he anticipates actions. He leverages his 6″9 wingspan as a weapon on defense to cut off driving lanes, and also can slide and stay low fighting through screens.
Not to be lost is the fact that his musty shooting mechanics have made his transition to the NBA three-point line rougher than anticipated. Last season alone he shot: 30% percent on catch and shoot attempts, 23% on corner 3’s, and his 48% true shooting percentage overall ranked in the bottom 7th percentile in the entire league.
Modern analytics have increasingly discouraged players from firing away mid-range jumpers, with the same ferocity past era’s have. Then there’s Lonzo, who has never shown the requisite acuity to master the mid range or floater game, which would add needed value to his shooting utility profile, as he’s shot only 30% on 175 shots tracked as mid range.
The helium surrounding Lonzo while he was entering the NBA got out of hand over a litany of reasons, most of them coming via his father and Magic Johnson, combined with rabid Laker fans driving the hype machine. Not to paint this completely in a negative light, the value of Lonzo as a draft prospect in my opinion was due to his safety as a two-way player with a relatively safe floor towards impacting winning team culture, as opposed to the possibility of a ceiling outcome where theoretically he becomes the best player among the class. That argument falls more in line with guys such as DSJ, DeAaron Fox, Jayson Tatum, and Markelle Fultz, who were drafted around him. The main takeaway thus far should be: Being able to detect the difference between a lead ball handler being a great passer, versus being an efficient shot creator.
Everything in Zo’s profile falls under one extreme or another, his outlet passing is a thing of absolute beauty, a rare trait among NBA players. While his dribbling and ball handling skills still grade out as below average.
Lonzo has thrived before in more of a secondary offensive stabilizer role, his off-ball instincts are a huge part of his bread and butter that makes him dangerous. Utilizing him to the best of his capabilities should be high on the list of responsibilities for Alvin Gentry. That means involving him in more hand-offs and cutting sets which would magnify his passing abilities even more.
After the off-season move to the Bayou, the most important question facing Zo’s third season in the NBA is his availability. Any additional time missed and the questions about whether or not he can solve some of the glaring deficiencies in his profile begin to grow exponentially.
Gentry’s high paced offense, mixed with getting away from the scrutiny that comes with playing for the Lakers should help him get back to having fun on the court. His knack for beautiful outlet passes and Zion being a lob threat the moment he steps on the court should lead to some beautiful offensive synergy that makes the Pelicans an NBA League Pass staple among fans.
[youtube https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=17hY_ghSS0o&w=750&h=422]
- Wendell Carter Jr, Center, Chicago Bulls
Wendell Carter Jr. has had an injury riddled start to his promising NBA career, a thumb injury against the Lakers on January 15th led to him missing the final 38 games of his rookie season, and underwent an additional procedure to address a core muscle injury that kept him out of the entirety of Vegas Summer League. When he is healthy, WC in many ways flashes a modern prototypical center skill set: Possessing adequate touch working as a post player around the basket, extremely polished and comfortable using either his left or right hand when attacking the rim, and showing impressive patience and footwork from a young big man.
His perimeter shooting at this point is still a theoretical asset. He flashed the ability to stretch the floor and consistently hit college three pointers during his freshman season at Duke, shooting 41% on a limited sample of 46 attempts, but struggled with the transition to the NBA 3 point line (6/32 16%).
The most frequent comparison that gets thrown around as a long term projection for Carter Jr. is Al Horford, stemming from their frame and skill set. In order to reach the secondary post initiator role that Horford has thrived in both Mike Budenholzer and Brad Stevens offense, Wendell will have to make noble improvements to his decision making skills, particularly passing out of the post when the defense rotates his way or sends a hard double to force a quick decision. Carter shows a tendency to get sped up and allow the defense to force him into errant passes out of the post. Especially since he doesn’t project as a transition big with the agility and foot speed to beat his man up and down the floor during fast break opportunities, unlocking surplus value from his passing is one of his major routes to reaching his ceiling outcome individually.
Defensively, Carter is also a mixed bag as he possesses solid mobility on the perimeter for someone his size, but the speed and skill level of the top guards in the league are so high it can still render it useless more times than not. He uses his 7”4 wingspan effectively to deter would be jump shooters, and with a couple more summers of NBA strength and conditioning programs, should hold up in the post against most 5 men.
Defensive technique (the ability to bend your knees, stay balanced and wide, while cutting down your strides from side to side) is a major issue that plagues young basketball players on every level, something that Carter has struggled with at Duke and in his rookie season, but it also isn’t something that can’t be taught or improved upon with proper repetition. Everything considered, Carter remains one of my favorite long-term center prospects due to my belief in his instincts to find a way to bring value overall within a team centric scheme on defense.
[youtube https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I9fTGnXUTjs&w=750&h=422]
- Marvin Bagley III, Forward, Sacramento Kings
The 6”11 forward is apart of the new generation of hybrid one-and-done forwards to enter the NBA after being coached by Mike Krzyzewski at Duke. That club includes: Jayson Tatum, Brandon Ingram, Justise Winslow, Jabari Parker, followed up by the most recent draft class with Zion Williamson, RJ Barrett & Cam Reddish, as NBA exports during the past six draft classes.
The allure of MBIII’s potential begins and revolves around his otherworldly jumping ability on the glass. He possesses extraordinary hops and his second and third jumps are almost a thing of legend around NBA circles. From a Biomechanics perspective, Marvin is able to use his lower body springiness to explode for 50/50 balls on the offensive and defensive boards. If you don’t put a body on him as soon as possible, there’s a good chance he’s already back up in the air by the time opposing big man have landed from their original jump. It’s almost reminiscent of watching a game of Slamball, where everyone else on the court is bound to the normal rules of verticality and gravity while the hardwood is simply a trampoline apparatus for Bagley path of destruction
The obvious caveats about the pure translation of per 36 numbers apply here, however MBIII’s rate during his rookie season were: 21 points and 11 rebounds on 50% shooting from the field overall, which is still highly impressive considering the parts of him game that need additional refinement during the adolescent stages of his NBA development. We’re also talking about a 19-year old during his first go around the league.
Bagley’s most glaring weakness in his profile comes defensively. He averaged 1.5 combined steals and blocks per game during his rookie season. For someone with his natural quickness, you would love to see his activity result in more gaudy stock totals to supplement his fantasy game. Part of the issue to this point is that he doesn’t display a high level of awareness and an understanding of defensive concepts. Most of the highly recruited prep stars get to coast off pure talent and ability on the lower levels without having to worry about the intricacies of team defense. Add in the fact that these same red flags showed during his one and done season at Duke, and the concerns about his defense take on added validity.
All of the skills are present for Bagley to take a huge sophomore jump as his understanding of the game and skill level catches up to his physical gifts. Bagley flashed both a face-up and pull up jumper, his first step is ridiculous for someone his size. This means if he becomes a consistent shooter from outside, or even tightens up his handle and cleans up his tendency of getting the ball stripped in tight spaces, he could become one of the quickest risers in this list.
[youtube https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5-PAJ0uNMVw&w=750&h=422]
Part Two:
Part Three:
Honorable Mention: 50-32
50. Frank Nkiltina
49. Zhaire Smith
48. OG Anuonby
47, Landry Shamet
46. Lonnie Walker IV
45. Markelle Fultz
44. Kevin Knox
43. Anfernee Simons
42. Malik Beasley
41. Mikal Bridges
40. Colin Sexton
39. Malik Monk
38. Donatas Sabonis
37. Justise Winslow
36. Kevin Huerter
35. Dejounte Murray
34. Mohammed Bamba
33. Miles Bridges
32. Michael Porter Jr.
*All Videos courtesy of: Evin Gualberto, NBA.com, Sacramento Kings, Minnesota Timberwolves, Bleacher Report, Da Infamous NY, Free DawkinsMTA
All statistics courtesy: of Basketball Reference, Cleaning The Glass, B-Ball Index, NBA.com, NBAshotcharts.com, Draft Express**
All ages for the purpose of this exercise are as of 1/1/19
2019 draft class was not in consideration for this list***
Recently graduated OR Excluded due to age: Pascal Siakam, Buddy Hield, Julius Randle, Caris LeVert, Montrezl Harrell, Malcolm Brogdon, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Joel Embiid, Derrick White, Jusef Nurkic, Gary Harris, Andrew Wiggins, Kris Dunn
Part 2:
- Aaron Gordon, Forward, Orlando Magic
AG was the youngest player to enter the 2014 NBA Draft, which feels WILD(!!) as he finishes up his undergraduate years for the purpose of this exercise. This should be a great revelation for understanding the value and the growth curve for players coming into the NBA. Gordon has incrementally improved upon aspects of his game with each season, and now sits on the precipice of All-Star consideration if we project additional improvement past his age 23 campaign.
The discourse around AG should begin with a statement of fact: Coming out of Arizona, the scouting report on him was a simple one: Dynamic athlete, with a limited skillset and a non-existent jumpshot. Consider the obstacles Gordon has had to overcome during his development: A lack of cohesive vision from the Orlando front office, playing for five coaches in five different seasons, and seemingly playing out of position for extended stretches of time. With that in mind, the growth he’s shown, especially on his jumper, is pretty impressive.
No seriously, when we think about players sprinting off and around flare screens guys like Steph Curry, Klay Thompson, or the masked off-ball assassin Rip Hamilton come to mind. Yet while no one was paying attention to the Magic last season, AG unlocked another stratosphere in his shooting potential by showing the prowess to be a weapon shooting off movement actions. According to the B-Ball index player grade tools; Gordon tested out as an “A” grade shooter off movement, which also takes into consideration how well a player is able to get a quality shot without the ball.
As a 6'9 220 lb power forward, his fluidity as an athlete is a key attribute that enables him to beat opposing wing defenders to the teeth of the basket. We've still yet to see Gordon in a full out push the pace up tempo team offensive setting. The idea of surrounding AG with additional shooters and guards that can lower his own self creation burden means there's still untapped potential in his future. Opposing defenses that attempt to counter his combination of speed and power by putting small forwards on him rapidly pay the cost as he can also play a bully ball style of offense on the boards while being a constant threat on lobs and putbacks with his insane catch radius. It's a wicked sight to see out of a 6'9″ power forward who’s pushing 225 pounds with a 7'0″ wingspan.
AG is also fantastic without the ball, has a keen understanding of timing and angles, and comprehends how to keep the defense guessing during pick and roll actions. They never know whether he's preparing to dive towards the basket or fade out towards the three point line.
Beyond a shadow of a doubt, Aaron Gordon is one of the most electrifying leapers we've had entered the league recently. His explosive capacity in the open floor or in half-court settings allows him to turn any play, or any pass, into his nightly Sportscenter top 10 play entry. After years of steady development, Aaron Gordon seems to be on the verge of entering his prime.
[youtube https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8fS0y25BP6A&w=560&h=315]
19. Mitchell Robinson, Center, New York Knickerbockers
Age: 20
Coming out of high school Mitchell Robinson was a highly recruited consensus top 10 recruit and a McDonald's All-American selection. The Godson of former NBA player and eight year veteran Shammond Williams, he originally decided to sign his letter of intent to play college basketball at Western Kentucky, where Williams was an assistant coach. Following an abrupt resignation of his God Father from the program, Robinson would later end up forgoing his one year of collegiate responsibility to train for the NBA draft. A decision the Knicks front office and fan base are thrilled about now as the concerns around his lack of game film resulted in him falling to the 36th pick in the draft and perhaps the biggest draft value among all selected players.
Pterodactyl esque 7’”4 wingspan, which he uses like weapons of mass destruction, Mitchell Robinson has all the physical tools of a modern defensive center.
Big time upside as a play finisher, ridiculous catch radius. In a 2018 draft class featuring lottery picks Mo Bamba, Jaren Jackson, and Wendell Carter, solid defensive prospects as big men in their own right, Robinson still shines as the best rim protector in the class.
Uses his sense of timing to diagnose plays and rotate to the right spot to anchor the paint. Robinson averaged 2.4 blocks per game in his limited rookie sample of 20 minutes per game, this production compares comfortably on a per rate basis to other elite rim protectors in the same vein during their early career results such as Dikembe Mutombo, Rudy Gobert & Clint Capela.
His rookie season also ranks among the most impressive for any Knick draft pick during the past two plus decades with a litany of team milestones. Eviscerated the franchise record for most total blocks during a rookie season with 161 blocks in 1360 minutes held by Patrick Ewing (103 blocks in 1771 minutes) for twenty years before it was broke by Kristaps Porzingis(134 blocks in 2047 minutes).
Robinson’s quickness combined with his natural instincts on the defensive end already make him one of the most disruptive defensive players in the league, his 5.7 block percentage ranked in the 99th percentile among center’s. Opposing jump shooters consistently underestimate his length and quick twitch reaction time on the perimeter as he can still play the part of a defensive terrorist who makes you think twice about that going up if he’s anywhere in your vicinity.
Robinson, has some negative habitual patterns that are par for the course when discussing a 20 year old big man. His post game can still use additional refinement as his moves tend to be predictable and easy to sit on.
Although, he put up a decent rebounding numbers, most of them come from his ridiculous athleticism due to the fact he can jump, show off his ridiculous vertical leaping ability and high point the ball before anyone else can attempt to get to it. I would probably be bored with the nuisances of boxing out if I could jump like him as well, so let’s just file that under “should come with additional repetitions” category.
The most frustrating trait of Robinson’s has to be the frequency of which he commits defensive fouls at, he can get jumpy in tight spaces and will try to block every shot attempts which leads to giving up stellar positioning to opposing players and consistently finding himself in foul trouble. If there’s anything that can get in the way of witnessing a full breakout for Mitch it’ll probably be the mental aspect of the game needing to catch up to his otherworldly physical gifts. He’s currently being drafted inside the top 40 as a top 10 center according to FantasyPros average draft position, which is a hefty price to pay given his limited track record and the Knickerbockers crowded front court, but we’re talking about a talent here who single-handedly can win you the blocks category on a weekly basis and a possibly future defensive player of the year candidate depending on if he can work out the kinks in his game.
[youtube https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QAfnMNBU4DY&w=560&h=315]
- Shai Gilgeous Alexander, Point Guard, Oklahoma City Thunder
Regardless of draft cycle any NBA team choosing in the mid to late lottery would sign up in a heartbeat to find a gem with an extremely high floor towards contributing towards winning basketball right away and throughout the duration of their rookie scale contract. In a draft class that has passed all reasonable expectations we could've possibly had beforehand, no other rookie has been a more instrumental part of a playoff rotation than SGA.
The number one thing that stands out about Shai as a prospect is his incredible body control and ambiguity while driving to the cup, you'll often find players in the league who play smaller than their listed height and wingspan on the court, but he's not one of them, almost using his 7 foot wingspan as a weapon on his drives to slither around defenders in close proximity while still creating enough space to get enough extension on difficult layups. His numbers may never jump off the page, since his upside is going to revolve around high level efficiency and his value on defense, in addition to the fact he still has to unlock more dynamism as a pull up shooter to capitalize on his slashing abilities. Per NBA.com only 3% of his field goals were pull up jumpshot's and he only connected at a 32% clip.
Defensively, the aforementioned 7 foot wingspan combined with his lateral agility on defense put him in the conversation to make All NBA Defensive teams in the future as his frame fills out. A quick observation about the defense of young ball handlers is that they tend to struggle even more defending in off ball actions as opposed to when they have to play defense man up. It takes a high level of repetition and defensive IQ to read the play as it develops in front of you, and still be able to trail your main and fight through screens. At the NBA level, even the smallest error in judgement can lead to an open backside cut or open three pointer. During the Clippers hard fought series against the Warriors, SGA showed he’s far beyond his age when it comes to defending at a high level.
Nonetheless, SGA holds a stable low usage superstar projection going forward due to his ability to play on and off the ball, while adding residual value on defense due to his elite frame for the guard position, and from a team construction standpoint being a blank canvas that should easily fit alongside another ball dominant guard or playing off a bigger wing initiator. The value of the Clippers selection of Shai Gilgeous Alexander with the 11th pick in the 2018 Draft has to be looked at as a part of the reason why they were able to secure the services of Kawhi Leonard down the road thanks to their attractive asset base, and not to mention the role he played on a playoff team.
SGA only attempted 1.7 three pointers per game last season which isn’t a large sample although he connected on 37%, so from a fantasy perspective where the shot goes from here will play a huge part of how alluring the offensive package will be. The upside on his playmaking ability may be capped as long as CP3 is calling OKC home, but Shai’s portability and defensive versatility make him one of the easiest guard prospects in recent memory to build around due to how malleable his skillset is. Shai Gilgeous Alexander remains a favorite of mine and a solid dynasty building block in all formats.
[youtube https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VmSXpSPBFgQ&w=560&h=315]
- John Collins, Forward/Center, Atlanta Hawks
Following a criminally underrated freshman season at Wake Forest playing in the ACC where he stealthily joined an elite fraternity with Michael Beasley and Kevin Durant as the only freshman over the past 25 years to average to 19 points, 9 rebounds and 1.5blocks, Collins has done nothing but improve since he's received his residency on Peachtree.
Reminds me a ton stylistically of a more offensively gifted Kenyon Martin, through sheer pogo stick-esque quick twitch bounciness in the paint, activity on the offensive boards, ferocious put backs, and lobs of impressive degree of difficulty.
Collins possesses reasons of optimism regarding his outside jumpshot, currently sitting at 34% from 3 so far during his two seasons thus far on 203 total attempts from long range, which we could categorize as a good sign considering his youth. According to CleaningTheGlass.com, the 6”10 Forward shot in the 93rd percentile among NBA bigs last season. The jumpshot has already come such a long way, adding the threat of a consistent and projectable three pointer provides him with another avenue towards providing surplus value.
Collins' chemistry with Trae Young has helped him become one of the best finishers in the entire NBA, finishing 10th in the league in total dunks, ranking in the 76th percentile finishing in the paint compared to fellow big men. The second half of the season has shown the Young/Collins pick and roll has the potential to be one of the most entertaining pairings going forward on the offensive side of the court.
Collins defensive acumen showed marginal improvements based on his rookie exploits to where he was towards the end of his second season, although he still has a way to go before being considered a plus defender since his effort defensively waxes and wanes from a possession to possession basis. Still has some bad habits on defense that he needs to fix such as: staying too upright in his defensive stance when guarding in the pick & roll or getting too “jumpy” at the point of attack and falling for pump fakes.
The Demon Deacon export doesn’t possess the rim protection skills to anchor an above average league defense from the center which will be a long term decision for Hawks GM Travis Schlenke to figure out what kind of big man would hypothetically fit besides him in a front court long term.
Collins improved his scoring averages from 10.5 during his rookie year to 19.5 during his sophomore run, he possesses a fantasy friendly game for a forward due to the added legitimacy of his jumper and based on his early returns seems to be a safe bet to provide fantasy owners with numbers close to 20-10 with solid percentages all around for the foreseeable future.
[youtube https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YtOK35QdSDs&w=560&h=315]
- Myles Turner, Center, Indiana Pacers
When Victor Oladipo suffered a gruesome calf injury on January 24th, effectively ending his follow up campaign to his Most Improved Player selection, the Pacers were in the middle of a strong stretch of play where they were at the time being the 3rd seed in the Eastern Conference. Questions about how far the team would drop following the injury persisted but due in large part to the ascendance of Myles Turner from a good defensive player to a legitimate Defensive Player of the Year played a major part in keeping the team afloat.
With each additional season, as the game is played more on the perimeter, the agility of your big men becomes a crucial aspect of slowing down dynamic offensive players who can get to the basket at will and break your defense down completely with dribble drive penetration. Turner has begun to constructively leverage his brute combination of his killer 7”4 wingspan, fluidity as an athlete on the defensive side of the court, as well as his defensive recognition on a nightly basis during the second half of the season. According to CleaningTheGlass, Turner's 4.9% block percentage ranked inside the 97th percentile among fellow big men, which is given additional credence by the fact that he led the league in blocks per game.
While some laid the regression criticism of Turner during his third year as a pro, it appears to be uncalled for as his per 36 numbers essentially stayed flat from the earlier year. Myles finished on ESPN's 9 category player rater as the 55th ranked player for fantasy basketball overall in 2017--2018 and the 20th overall player in 2018-2019. This speaks critically to the safety of Myles Turner's package as a fantasy asset, over the past three seasons Turner has nearly shot 37% on his 468 three point attempts; On top of that his 2.7 blocks per game led the entire NBA and an even more absurd per 36 rate of 3.4 and it becomes abundantly clear the only reason his own Unicorn-esque attributes aren't a bigger story is because of the market he resides in.
The 11th pick in the 2015 draft averaged 13.3 points per game last season, which was a tick below his career high (14.5ppg) set during year two. Less can be more when it comes to Centers if you don't have the most polished offensive arsenal, the Longhorn product seemingly lacking potential to raise his scoring totals closer to 20-points per game shouldn't deter the totality of the package here if he can maintain his efficiency in the paint and with his long-ball. Myles has the tendency to float on the perimeter which is one of the biggest flaws of the finesse big men of this era. 45% of his shot attempts were classified as mid range attempts, you would prefer to see these traded out for a few more high percentage looks around the basket in a optimal scenario.
The chemistry between Myles Turner & his fellow front-court mate Donatas Sabonis is quietly one of the biggest questions teams jostling for playoff position in the Eastern Conference, whether the Pacers decide this is the pairing to go into the future with, or dangle one of them as collateral for a trade is to be determined.
[youtube https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ukKi4gyhYDA&w=560&h=315]
- Jamal Murray, Guard, Denver Nuggets
The evolving nature of team building in the NBA recently has allowed guards once pigeonholed into strictly being pure combo guards more flexibility in finding a suitable niche within team dynamics.
While his instincts as a lead initiator aren't to ever be confused with the likes of John Stockton or Steve Nash (career high 4.8 assists in 2019) Denver felt comfortable enough this summer to invest a max level 5 year 170 million dollar extension to the 22 year old Canadian export following their run to the Western Conference semifinals. Jamal has shown improvement as a lead ball handler at times, particularly as a ball-handler, where he's improved his live dribble to the point where it can keep defenders on their heels as they anticipate his next move.
In the half-court, his two man synergy with Nikola Jokic has led to him playing to his most dangerous strengths coming into the league which were: rising up for catch and shoot opportunities, off movement shooting, his great sense of anticipation and timing on his cuts and pivots to the basket.
Blessed with a long range shooting stroke sweeter than a plate of yams with extra syrup, Murray has proven to be a proficient sharpshooter from long range. Through his three seasons in the league Maple Curry has shot a cumulative 36% on 1194 attempts, combined with his shooting sample and consistently solid free throw percentages at Kentucky and on the AAU/Grassroots circuit it gives us a baseline for a safe dynasty asset to build around.
The 7th pick in the 2016 draft is a competent passer in his own right who can make all of the rudimentary reads you'd like to see from your point guard. Only 30% of his possessions last season were as the pick and roll ball handler, which might seem high but only ranked 75th in the league in frequency, per CleaningTheGlass is assist percentage ranked in the 58th percentile of ball handlers, which is a tick above league average, but playing besides Nikola Jokic has allowed him to find his comfort level between facilitating for others and putting the ball in the basket.
The Canadian guard isn’t to be confused with some of the majestic leapers in the league currently, he does sneakily possess stellar body control when attacking the basket that allows him to explode off catch unsuspecting rim protectors a step slow and finish through contact. Finishing in the 54th percentile among guards in the painted area, Murray lacks a hyper elite first step that can lead to difficult and low percentage attempts against defenders.
Murray's lack of high level agility sliding left to right is what holds him back on defense. His instincts and anticipation aren't the worst and he isn't a loaf to the point where we have to question his effort but to this point he's proven not quick enough to handle the jitterbug point guards nor strong enough to consistently guard bigger wings.
As he enters his fourth season in the NBA, Jamal Murray has proven to be an electric scorer who can fill up the stat sheet in the blink of an eye, his combination threes and assists make him a candidate to become a top 50 player in all formats without much improvement necessary across the board.
[youtube https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=camJA3Y2Yio&w=560&h=315]
- Brandon Ingram, Forward, New Orleans Pelicans
When King James signed on to bring his talents to Hollywood last summer, he also brought the media circus frenzy that follows him, additional eyes and pressure on the development arc of slender man with the 7"3 wingspan. Ingram responded with the best stretch of basketball in his career following the all star break that unfortunately came to a halt in March when he was diagnosed with a potentially career ending blood clot. BI has since underwent surgery on his right shoulder, and is currently expected to make a return for next season.
One Ingram related observation since his freshman season at Duke, that still places him in high faith, is he usually tends to come out on the other his side poor stretches of play as a noticeably better player on the other side. Historically a late bloomer, Ingram has shown an overall improved level of production each season as the year season progresses, showing positive progression as he learns to turn his elite raw tools into sustained production.
After he missed 7 games in December following a nagging ankle injury, Ingram put up rest of season numbers that mirrored 20ppg-6rebounds-4assists on 51% from the field and 33% from deep in the 32 games before his season ended.
Prospect growth not being linear, almost seems like a cliche among draft philosophy, but the validity always holds firm, and there's a fine line on the path between growth and stagnation (see: recently graduated Wiggins, Andrew).
Per the Bball index individual skill grades, his report card affirms his potential as a wing who can live in the painted area and finish consistently at a high clip. Grading out as a A- in isolation situations, and in the 69th percentile overall in finishing, he already holds a strong base that should only improve as he adds additional mass to his frame.
At times, it seems like Ingram is still growing accustomed to the newfound wizardry of his 7"3 wingspan and what it allows him to accomplish on the court, combines his ability to take freakishly long strides towards the basket with a solid handle for someone his size which gives him a shifty change of pace maneuverability. According to CleaningTheGlass, Ingram ranked in the 97th percentile among wings as he drew shooting fouls on 16.5% of his field goal attempts, although his career high in free throw rate were muddied by only completing them at a 67% clip.
The translation of the Kinston, North Carolina product's outside shot has yielded disheartening returns to this point after he shot 41% from three during his one & done season at Duke. BI suffers from mechanical inconsistencies with his lower half and as he can struggle to keep his base balanced when hampered with tight closeouts which can lead to some clankers. A career 33% three point shooter through 386 attempts, it's imperative for Ingram to improve his stroke from NBA range to come close to reaching the lofty expectations of him after he entered the league. The advanced statistics haven't been a fan of Ingram during any point during his NBA career, and while that's not the greatest sign, i still hol
Speaking of the aforementioned lofty expectations, can we please stop doing this thing where we compare 19 year old's to future Hall of Famers? Even, Kevin Durant was implicitly guilty in driving the boat towards improbable benchmarks and unrealistic expectations when he said a 19 year old Ingram was further along than he was at the same age. Whether it's calling Ben Simmons the next Lebron James, or Lonzo Ball the second coming of Jason Kidd, basing your NBA expectations simply off ultimate ceiling outcomes, are simply lazy juxtapositions that don't achieve much towards learning about the idiosyncrasies that actually lead to a sustainable career.
[youtube https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-NoJP_u2WzA&w=560&h=315]
13. Deandre Ayton, Center, Phoenix Suns
Age: 20
The Suns made Deandre Ayton the first pick in the 2018 NBA draft, and while there was some debate about whether he was the right pick, he definitely showed he has the potential to live up to the billing.
Being so young, you'd think it might have taken Ayton some time to develop but he asserted himself on the glass right away as a rookie. He finished the season averaging 10.3 rebounds per game, which was 13th best in the league. He even outrebounded vets like Enes Kanter, Steven Adams and LaMarcus Aldridge which is no easy feat. When you look at just offensive rebounding Ayton was even more impressive, narrowly missing out on a top-10 season with 3.1 offensive rebounds per game. All this goes to show he’s not getting pushed around by anyone down low and he’s only going to get better.
Yes Ayton can clean the glass with the best of them but his potential on the offensive end is what made him the first pick in the draft. And he didn’t disappoint in his rookie season, putting up a very respectable 16.3 points per game. As you’d expect, Ayton did his damage near the rim and boasted an elite 58.5 field goal percentage (which was better than Giannis’ BTW) good for 10th-best in the league. Ayton also isn’t afflicted by one of the more common big man problems: poor free throw shooting. He knocked his free throws down at nearly 75% which you will DEFINITELY take when you consider the FT percentages of other big men like DeAndre Jordan or Andre Drummond. Having a big man who doesn’t kill you FT% is a huge advantage in fantasy basketball.
While I’ve given Ayton a glowing review so far, his rookie season wasn’t without flaws. Yes he hit 3/4 of his free throws but only shot … 2.9 a game? For someone who’s supposed to be one of the pillars of the offense you’d like to see him get that number up. That’s a bit of a nitpick but his biggest flaw for fantasy (and in real life) is on the defensive end. Ayton posses rare size and athleticism but that didn’t really translate on the defense end. He finished the season average 0.9 blocks per game which isn’t terrible, it’s just not great. Ayton shouldn’t trail guys like Maxi Kleber or Richaun Holmes on the BPG leaderboard. He also chipped in a respectable 0.9 steals per game but, again, he’s got the physical tools to do more so hopefully we see an uptick in year 2.
I get it, Luka Doncic is amazing and dominated the headlines this season but Deandre Ayton is no slouch. He immediately cemented himself as an elite rebounder and put up a very good rookie season on the offensive end. And he’s only 20 years old! He’s got a great foundation to build on and if he takes the much talked about “year 2 jump" he will cement himself as one of the best big men in the game. And if that happens, there’s not going to be many guys you’d rather have on your roster. - Travis Pastore (Follow him here at @TheRealTRAVIOLI)
[youtube https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KiqIX4qXJwI&w=560&h=315]
12. Trae Young, Point Guard, Atlanta Hawks
Age: 20
Vantage point means so much whenever attempting to contextualize the development of the young stars in the league. To no fault of his own, the draft day trade involving super Luka Doncic and the Dallas Mavericks, will forever be attached to the public's perspective.
Trae was perhaps the trickiest evaluation to pin down during the 2018 NBA draft process due to a litany of reasons, most glaring obviously his limitations on the defensive end which will probably hinder him for as long as he's a professional. Squint hard enough, and you still can visualize all the skills and indicators necessary to be one of the next great offensive maestro's of fantasy basketball.
Equipped with an audacious shooting trigger, a tight dribble and a myriad of 'wiggle' moves to which infused with his heavily under-emphasized quickness and ability to dash to the basket still makes him one of the dreamiest point guard prospects in theory. Oddly enough, his shooting ability was the number one selling point for Trae during the pre draft evaluation process, and during his rookie year shooting sample thus far it's the part of the package lagging behind the rest of his game.
Young finished the season shooting 32% from three, sank by his 16 games in November where he shot 17/86 from deep good for a ghastly 19%, although his shot trended in a positive direction after the start of 2019. It's safe to say in general we can throw the projection of much of his upside away if he doesn't become an elite level shooter closer to his peak years, he's also shown a propensity to be a streaky shooter going back to his high school shooting samples and including his one & done season at Oklahoma.
The label of "generational-esque passing ability" has been whored around the past couple years with draft analysts throwing the term out each year seemingly for a different lead ball handling prospect, everything considered the raw assist totals Trae Young has amassed this season is definitely a positive aspect for his future outlook, sitting in the top 10 in both total assists and assist rate, it backs up the eye test that shows rare innate basketball instincts with the ball in his hand, with the ability to whip missile skip passes for corner three pointers with ambiguity, and drop sneaky dime drop passes in traffic.
Almost a mere lock to make the big men he'll play with in his career a lot of money due to his ability to execute every read on the floor, played a huge role if you followed the Hawks over the season in Dewayne Dedmon & Alex Len turning in some of the best offensive basketball of their NBA careers.
When the ball is in his hand, Young has a rare magnetism on the flow of the offense that’s hard to quantify. Great passers are able to bring a certain child like joy to the exuberance to the floor both from a spectator's perspective and to the players that share the court with them. Big men stay active on the boards, set better screens and run harder in transition when they’re playing with a maestro like Trae. The confidence level of complementary shooters are also enhanced knowing they could be hit i n stride for a rhythm jumpshot at any moment.
The arrow is obviously looking up for the young point guard from Lubbock, Texas, the Hawks seem committed to doing everything possible to build around Young strengths while insulating the fact that he may never even be a competent NBA defender, take into account the fact that since Young has the green light to pull up from anywhere on the court at his slightest impulse and the nature his nature to hot and cold streaks that may lead to some bouts with inefficiency , but nonetheless many of the signs of an elite shot creator are staring us in the face already.
[youtube https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WlpGhrhM12c&w=560&h=315]
11. Jayson Tatum, Forward, Boston Celtics
Age: 20
Larry Hughes’ nephew from St. Louis, quietly is one of the most accomplished high school players during the recent influxes of talent to enter the NBA since the one and done rule was implemented. The book on Tatum happens to be much more extensive than normally is the case for draft entrants and young players based on his prospect pedigree.
Before he played a single minute in the league, Tatum had already won 3 Gold Medals playing for Team USA’s u19 division (2013 FIBA Americas , 2014 FIBA World Championships, 2015 FIBA World Championships), combine that with AAU games and his film from his freshman year at Duke, essentially Tatum was as close to a known commodity on the grassroots circuit that you could find.
On some corners of NBA Twitter & the internet, Tatum’s sophomore campaign was seen as a massive letdown and cause for trepidation about his future outlook. I wouldn’t go that far as last season as a whole for Boston can be filed as a throw away.
Tatum has a prototypical body for an NBA wing. He is 6' 8" with a long, 6' 11" wingspan, wide shoulders, long arms and legs, and moves like a guard. He’s more of a finesse athlete than the frightening freight train in the open court type, but considering the craft in his offensive repertoire of eurosteps and extension scoop finishes he’s still a dangerous threat in the open floor.
I say all of that to say this: Many of the issues that plagued Tatum last year weren’t the first time that they’ve been issues for him during his young career. His love affair with mid range jump shots can hijack his floor game, struggles to create constant separation from defenders due to falling just short of an elite first step which can lead to low percentage attempts. Has the tendency to settle for his two dribble pull up at first instinct if he can’t get all the way past his man. Tatum’s footwork is at a high level and does have a strong jab step that gives him a chance to get to always growing bag of jump shots of all variety.
The 6”8 forward is at his best when he’s attacking closeouts aggressively and making decisive moves immediately upon getting his hands on the ball instead of falling in love with his face up or post game.
Redistributing his shot profile should go a long way towards Tatum taking his next leap. According to CleaningTheGlass, he ranked in the 95th percentile among wings at shots defined as “long mid range” attempts. His midrange package is a crucial element of what makes him one of the most well rounded scoring forwards amongst his peers, however for someone who shot in the 70th percentile as a three point shooter switching out a couple of contested mid range jumpers for threes would be in everybody's best interest. The Duke export has shot 40% from three over his two years in the league on 553 attempts giving him a strong shooting base to work with if he can keep up the efficiency on a higher volume per game attempted three pointers.
In order for Tatum to be a one man offensive engine or unlock the next level within his game, it means he'll need to improve several grades as a playmaker, he possesses the height to be a solid passer with the ability to see over the defense while he has the ball. His role within Brad Stevens offense hasn’t asked him yet to constantly make reads out of the pick and roll, but that should change with a larger role in the offense after the departures of Al Horford & Kyrie Irving opening up more offensive responsibility. Has shown the aptness to making solid reads out of the pick and roll when fully engaged and as his ability to orchestrate offense for his teammates is one of the most important questions for the upcoming Celtics season.
[youtube https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m0xvIJuYum8&w=560&h=315]
Part 1:
Part 3:
*All Videos courtesy of: Evin Gualberto, NBA.com, Sacramento Kings, Minnesota Timberwolves, Bleacher Report, Da Infamous NY, Free DawkinsMTA
All statistics courtesy: of Basketball Reference, Cleaning The Glass, B-Ball Index, NBA.com, NBAshotcharts.com, Draft Express**
All Ages for the purpose of this exercise are as of 1/1/19***
2019 rookies were not in consideration for this list****
Recently graduated OR Excluded due to age: Pascal Siakam, Buddy Hield, Julius Randle, Caris LeVert, Montrezl Harrell, Malcolm Brogdon, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Joel Embiid, Derrick White, Jusef Nurkic, Gary Harris, Andrew Wiggins, Kris Dunn
Part Three:
- De'Aaron Fox, Point Guard, Sacramento Kings
Few players made a bigger jump in value last season than the Kings' second-year point guard. Fox's emergence made himself a fantastic fantasy asset and, even more astoundingly, made the Kings a potential playoff threat. A year after all the talk focused on Donovan Mitchell and Jayson Tatum, Fox made his case as the best player from the 2017 NBA draft class.
One of the first things you notice about De'Aaron Fox are his athleticism and his blazing speed. Fox is even on record staking his claim as the fastest player in the NBA, and he might not be wrong. He has transcendent speed that makes him a nightmare on the fast break. While we don't have 40-yard dash times to compare, NBA.com's advanced stats feature does list average speed per game on the offensive end of the floor. And of players to player 30+ minutes a night Fox places 7th. It's not a perfect way to quantify his speed but it does give you an idea. A highlight or two might also help.
Have his natural gifts translated into stats? The answer is yes. Fox made big jumps across the board this season. He upped his scoring average from 11.6 PPG to 17.3 PPG thanks in large part to improved shooting. His 3-point percentage made a huge jump from 30.7% as a rookie to 37.1% this season. Because of his improved 3-point stroke defenders are going to have to start guarding him further from the basket, which is going to open even wider driving lanes where he can utilize that aforementioned speed. Another great sign of his offensive growth is his free throws attempts per game. He nearly doubled his attempts this season which gives him way more opportunities to add easy points to his stat line.
Fox also made strides in his playmaking, taking his assists per game from an "ehh" 4.4 as a rookie to an elite 7.3 this season. The Kings point guard found himself among some great company on assists per game leaderboard this season, just behind James Harden and tied with Nikola Jokic. And his assist numbers should continue to rise going forward. The Kings have a core group of guys who know how to score the basketball. Fox's backcourt mate Buddy Hield made huge strides this season and rookie Marvin Bagley III looked like a future All-Star before injuries slowed him down. And let's not forget Fox played half of last season at just 20 years old. As he gets a better feel for the game he could easily surpass 10 assists per game for many years to come.
ESPN's Player Rater ranked De'Aaron Fox 36th which is a pretty great return for a guy only in his second season. His stat line is definitely repeatable so at worst you're looking at a top-40 player going into next season. However, if he's able to up his scoring and assist numbers (which I think he will) and can improve on his 3.8 rebounds per game to something like 5 per game, we could be looking at a top-20 player next season. He's incredibly young and took a huge leap last year which makes him one of the best universal dynasty assets in the league. Travis Pastore (Follow him here at @TheRealTRAVIOLI)
[youtube https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gKrSIcls8LI&w=560&h=315]
9. D'angelo Russell, Guard, Golden State Warriors
Age: 22
We all have types. Some guys consider it offensive to approach them if you’re lacking in the booty, leg, and hips department. It took years of reflection and self assessment for me to realize, I too have a type! That happens to be slow footed guards with a sub elite first step, that show advanced feel for the game and can shoot the lights out. I’ll always bet on the high feel and IQ prospects for better and for worse, which leads me into my everlasting affinity for D’angelo Russell.
If we made a list over the past 4 years of players who have sparked the most polarizing discourse, Dlo has surprisingly has been one of the biggest lightning rods on NBA Twitter if you haven’t noticed.
Coming out of tOSU, Russell never projected as your run of the mill high-flying one and done athlete, with a skillset dependent much more on feel, and a read and react based game on the looks opposing defenses would send his way in pick and roll coverages. Fans usually tend to underestimate just how difficult the adjustment period tends to be for point guards coming into the league, doubly if you aren’t a quick twitch athlete.
D-Lo excels using his craftiness and elite handle to find even the smallest slither necessary to get his tear-drop rainbow floaters off. Lulls defenders to sleep with his hypnotizing in and out yo-yo dribble. Dloading might be one of the most apropos nicknames in the sports universe. At times it’s felt, Dbuffering was a more fitting nickname to describe his game downloading at what felt like AOL 4.0 free trial disc speeds. But in the words of Urban pastor Young Jeezy, Slow grinds better than no grind.
Dlo held a steady yet unspectacular growth through 4 years in the NBA. Upping his scoring averages from 13ppg as a rookie to 21 this past year, and notably his percent of assisted field goals for his team while on the court from 21% as a rookie to 39.2% in year 4, which placed him 3rd among players who played 30 or more minutes per game only trailing Westbrook & Harden. (For additional context per NBA.com, James Harden had a 39.4% assist percentage). Detractors will account this to his top 5 usage rate, but Russell spent a large majority of his minutes anchoring lineups with teammates who couldn’t consistently create shots for themselves. Highlighted by Dlo leading one of the most improbable comebacks in NBA history against the Kings, where he dropped 27 points in the quarter, down 28 in the 4th quarter, flanked by a lineup of Jared Dudley, Rodions Kurucs, Treveon Graham, and Rondae Hollis Jefferson beside him to somehow pull out a miraculous victory.
Year 4 for D'angelo also saw him return a career low turnover percentage (13.6%) while being burdened with the onus of heavy self creation (31.9 usage rate), which speaks lengths to how he's grown as a floor general.
His snail like pace when operating in the pick & roll is unique and requires a keen understanding of timing, patience, and control to pull off. Ranked 9th in the league this season in total three pointers made with 234. You might’ve heard of the other shooters who drained more than him: Curry, Harden, Redick, Hield, Thompson, Lillard, Kemba, Hield. That's it. That’s the list.
The proverbial light switch seems to have gone off once the calendar flipped to January 1st for Dlo, and it was sort of a redemption tour for his prospect status heading into his restricted free agency. In the 44 games after January 1st, he flirted with averages of 23-4-7 on 44-37-78 splits. No one would have batted an eye if the Nets ended up in the Zion sweepstakes last season, considering the traumatic roster after effects one Billy King trade had on this organization, let’s be real, or when it looked like Caris LeVert was emerging as the foundational piece for this team before missing half the season in a chunk 41 games.
Russell has been the most talented offensive player on every roster he’s been apart of thus far, his weaknesses such as his reliance for the mid range due to his inability to effectively finish at a high clip around the basket (55% at the rim, 33rd percentile among guards), lower his upside at hitting the ridiculous heights of some of the superstars in the league currently as a one man offensive fulcrum.
Russell’s ability to operate on and off the ball alleviate many of my concerns regarding his long term fit, the scalability of his skill set features several different ways of taking advantage of his shooting utility, that should translate effectively for the Warriors, playing besides Steph Curry. He shot 39% on catch and shoot three point attempts last season a figure that should improve with the higher quality of shot's he'll be getting in Steve Kerr's system.
The jury is still out on how fair of a shake Dlo will truly get to fit in within the team dynamic in Golden State, the Warriors had no cap space this summer, meaning there wasn’t anything they could’ve done to even attempt to replace KD in one transaction, it would be intellectually dishonest to believe reloading (no pun intended) the next core in the midst could’ve happened with one move this offseason.
[youtube https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EZj9yhRoQvs&w=640&h=360]
- Donovan Mitchell, Shooting Guard, Utah Jazz
Newfound expectations for Donovan skyrocketed during his electric rookie season as his rise to NBA stardom happened in a blink of an eye, it didn’t take him long to establish himself as a human highlight reel and nightly fixture on League Pass for basketball junkies.
Mitchell’s hype train began to gain momentum close to the 2017 NBA draft as he went though team workouts and interviews, to the point where Jazz GM Dennis Lindsay threatened to fire any staff member who leaked the information about how impressive his team workout was. Even as someone who was a fan of his raw mold of skills during the pre draft cycle, it’d be a bold face lie to say this was anything close to a reasonable expectation for the production level he’s provided the Jazz through two seasons given the intel we had of him coming into the league, thus making it hard for me to take the “overrated or over hyped” narratives that have been floating around Spida serious. Considering where he was drafted it’s impossible to categorize the start to his career as anything other than a massive success and building blocks for a great career ahead of him.
Murmurs about the dreaded sophomore slump started to gain traction after Mitchell’s sophomore season got off to a slow start. Through the first 34 games of the 2019 campaign his performance gave credence to many of his biggest detractors criticisms of him being an inefficient shot chucker with his stats sitting at a underwhelming 40/28/79% on 20-3-3 shooting splits. After January 1st in the 58 remaining games he played he put up averages of 25-4-4 on a shooting triple line 44/39/80.
Mitchell has proven to be a sharpshooter when left open on catch and shoot opportunities, shooting 42% according to NBA.com last season on those respective attempts. His long range shot making ability has improved several grades each season since his freshman campaign at Louisville where he shot 25% from the college 3-point line. His shot mechanics are sound and he does a great job of staying balanced and hopping into his shot from distance which enables him to keep a good rhythm and base on his jumper.
One major area of improvement Mitchell needs to work on is his consistency on offense, as he’s been prone to suffer from prolonged shooting slumps from quarter to quarter, game to game, at a time. The offensive ecosystem in Utah after the departure of Gordon Hayward was in a massive state of flux and as they lacked other options capable of handling the heavy self creation burden that Mitchell bludgeoned himself into, but even at less than ideal volume efficiency the kind of player who’s good enough to come straight into the league out of college and become the main perimeter offensive threat on a team that won 48 and 50 wins in consecutive seasons in the loaded Western Conference are few and far between.
Mitchell possesses a strong handle with a multitude of nifty penetration dribble moves that keep defenders off balance and allow him to to gnaw into the teeth of opposing defenses to create scoring opportunities for himself.
His best offensive attribute happens to be his ability to slither past defenders and create separation as his quick twitch athleticism shines brightest while he’s going downhill and can explode east or west with either hand using his full bag of euro steps and misdirection moves. Mitchell finished in the 61st percentile among combo guards last season and improving on this number could go a long way towards becoming an elite volume scorer.
Donovan’s game is reminiscent of an NBA version of the notable low center of gravity yet agile and powerful NFL running back prototypes (i.e Maurice Jones Drew) as he’s very much a ticking time bomb of kinetic energy just waiting to explode in tight spaces on the court.
Although he’s actually a tick undersized compared to other NBA shooting guards, his 6’10” wingspan mixed with his athletic profile is a major reason why he plays bigger than his listed measurables, doubly on defense as he’s able to really smother opposing guards with his length and instincts in a team defensive setting.
Optimization of a players skills takes place when you match talent with the proper role in the proper team dynamic. The offseason acquisition of Mike Conley and Bojan Bogdanovic should eliminate some of the hero ball shot attempts that bogged down his personal efficiency throughout his first two years in the league, which everything considered comfortably puts Mitchell on the precipice of producing at an All Star level, and comfortably one of the most dynamic young guards in the NBA.
[youtube https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aeonytwguPM&w=560&h=315]
7. Devin Booker, Shooting Guard, Phoenix Suns
Age: 22
Booker is part of the new generation of ball-dominant guards who are a threat to shoot the second they cross half court. He's also one of only five players ever to score 70 points in a game, so that's cool.
Already through four full seasons, Booker has upped his points per game every year - from 13.8 as a rookie to 26.6 this past season. For context, that 26.6 PPG was the 6th-highest in the NBA this season ahead of Kevin Durant, Damian Lillard and Kyrie Irving. His offensive game this season came along with 7.1 free throw attempts per game (top 5 in the NBA BTW) and he knocked them down at a near elite 86.6% clip.
I could go on and on about how Booker can score but we all know that. The scary thing is he still has room to improve. Booker carries a reputation as a dead-eye 3-point shooter but that's not entirely warranted. He put up a career-high 38.3% 3-point percentage last year but fell back to Earth with a 32.6% this season. Booker can definitely shoot it with the best of them but without a great supporting cast this season defense could key on him and make life difficult for him. Opposing defenses aren't going to leave Booker any space and he also gets asked to bail the team out in end of shot clock situations which leads to some very tough 3's. If Booker gets that percentage back up to nearly 40% we could be looking at a 30-point per game scorer as soon as next season.
One of the biggest improvements Booker has made is in his playmaking. The Suns handed him the reigns this season and he delivered, increasing his assists per game from 4.7 to 6.8. And as the team around him gets better these assist numbers will only go up, taking him from a scoring guard to one of the best lead guards in the league. And with the Suns making a concerted effort to mold him into their point guard, he'll have the ball in his hands consistently over the next few years.
One of the few knocks on Booker's resume over the past two years has been health. He played in only 54 games in 2017-18 and 64 games this season after averaging 77 games per season in his first two years in the league. But all the tools are there to see Booker become a top-10 fantasy player next year. - Travis Pastore (Follow him here at @TheRealTRAVIOLI)
[youtube https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bGpH68rjE1A&w=560&h=315]
- Kristaps Porzingis, Power Forward/Center, Dallas Mavericks
Three Six Latvia hasn’t stepped foot onto an NBA court for a regular season game since he suffered a torn ACL at Madison Square Garden against the Milwaukee Bucks on February 6th 2018. In other words, what literally feels like an eternity ago in the NBA world. It would also turn out to be the final game he played as a Knickerbocker, as news shocked almost everyone on January 31st 2019 as he was traded along with Tim Hardaway Jr, Courtney Lee, and Trey Burke to the Dallas Mavericks for Dennis Smith Jr, Deandre Jordan, Wesley Matthews, Dallas’ unprotected first round pick in 2021 and another 2023 top 10 protected first rounder.
In light of what we’ve seen happen recently to other big guys like Boogie Cousins or Kevin Durant, it’s been illuminated how quickly the trajectory of a promising career can be shifted with one wrong step that leads to a catastrophic injury. Another injury or setback it and KP signing the 1 year 4.5 million dollar qualifying offer to reach unrestricted free agency would’ve been the worst possible advice for his future earning potential.
We’ll never know how serious he was about signing the qualifying offer or if it was all posturing to get away from the Knicks franchise, but the Knicks are on the clock as they try and replace the guy they once thought could be the savior of the franchise, and their best draft pick in two decades. Every step on the court Porzingis takes is a glaring reminder of the sobering reality that has plagued big men throughout NBA history.
In an environment where the value of floor spacing around the league is at an apex, Porzingis’s capacity to protect the rim, score inside and stretch the floor puts him on the short list of players who check all three of those boxes at the same time. The 7’3 big man flirted with 40% percent from deep in his last season over 228 attempts during the 48 games before his ACL Tear, he’s not shy to let it fly from long range and even pulls it from a few feet behind the NBA 3 point line when he’s feeling it.
According to CleaningTheGlass, Porzingis’ 3.8 block percentage ranked in the 97th percentile among all NBA big men. When last healthy, KP racked up 2 blocks a game and was among the most elite rim protectors in the league when it comes to altering shots in the restricted area. Opposing defenders only shot 50.7% at the rim against him showing that he was already in the process of leveraging his incredible 7”6 wingspan and becoming a constant nuisance on the back line.
Mavericks director of Athlete performance Jeremy Holsopple, stated over the summer Porzingis has added 17 pounds of muscle to his frame that has transformed him into a different athletic specimen. His knee injury allowing him to address his lack of core strength could stealthily be a blessing in disguise if he’s able to stay healthy moving forward.
Smaller and less diminutive players would be able to toss Porzingis around like a rag doll both as a rebounder and offensively. He would constantly get pushed off his spots as he struggled to establish deep position in the post and find himself often starting his moves from the high post. Porzingis only collected 14.9% of available defensive rebounds on the floor before his injury which ranked in the 25th percentile among bigs.
Rick Carlisle, is known around NBA circles as one of the most innovative offensive minds in the league. Health caveats aside, it’ll be interesting to see how creative he gets in offensive sets using Luka and Porzingis as the offensive centerpieces as the possibilities are endless.
For the purposes of this exercise, Kristaps was the most difficult player to rank due to his ACL tear, the unpleasant nature of chronic lower extremity injuries for big men, or how awkward at times he looked running up and down the court or landing after rising up vertically. Attempting to properly gauge his fantasy value and the reality that he had already begun to establish himself as an All Star before being sidelined for the past 18 months makes his upcoming season one of the biggest variables for the 2020 NBA season.
[youtube https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KRbAdIlNASw&w=560&h=315]
- Jaren Jackson Jr, Power Foward/Center, Memphis Grizzlies
Jaren Jr is the latest addition to the growing class of second generation NBA stars, his father Jaren Sr was a 12 year NBA veteran who's climax includes playing alongside David Robinson & a baby faced Tim Duncan while being coached by Greg Popovich during the Spurs first title run in 1999.
His acumen on defense for a young player who doesn't even turn 21 until September of 2021 (sheesh) makes him a possible candidate to blow by the original expectations for his potential upside draft enthusiasts had for him coming into his rookie season. Rate of improvement is something that's difficult to objectively quantify, and moreless falls under the branch of "eye test" scouting, but whenever i would keep tabs on the growth from JJJ, both during his freshman campaign playing for Tom Izzo, and his rookie year in the NBA he'd constantly show off a new facet of his game something you weren't aware he had in his bag of tricks. Jackson's jumpshot is far from a picturesque snapshot of beauty, but he has shown the ability to repeat his jumpshot motion in tight spaces and get his shot off without issue over defenders who are closing out, albeit having a low release point. The transition to the NBA three point line also wasn't drastic for JJJ as the first returns on his stroke gave us 36% on a volume of 142 attempts, as well as 76% from the charity stripe. Oddly enough, JJJ struggled mightily on his corner 3 point attempts before his quad injury sapped the final 2 months of his year.
The former Michigan State Spartan regularly shows off winning instincts on the defensive end of the court as a young player. A common mistake young centers make trying to learn how to read and react to the ridiculously high skill level of offensive players in the NBA is getting lost in no man's land. It happens regularly on the court, and to a blind eye it could be difficult to synthesize where exactly it went wrong, since NBA players only need a slither of space to get a clean shot off.
The importance of back-line support, as the league trends towards being played more on the perimeter has grown exponentially. JJJ has already shown the penchant to deter multiple opposing offensive players attempts at scoring from different quadrants on the court at once: A: being able to tag the roll man and stop his roll gravity B: having the requisite agility to use his length to disrupt and contest mid range shots in his vicinity C: Guard his own defender while being able to help out in weak-side rim protection.
This isn't meant to paint JJJ as the perfect player, he's still actively plagued with issues *every* young center deals with during the process of learning how to play guard effectively without committing ticky tack fouls on the defensive end. On top of the fact that he doesn’t possess the strength to be an elite on ball defender as stronger big men can still throw him around in the paint.
Nonetheless, his already growing defensive prowess makes him one of the most versatile switch defenders from an on-court perspective, with his combination of outside shooting, we’re looking at a chance to put up ridiculous stock numbers that make him a floor threat for a top 50 fantasy player starting next year.
Lastly, when we assess the entire package what we may be looking at here is a monster chaos creator on defense, who easily has a future as a DPOY contender as his frame fills out, while also being able to do all the things you need from your center on offense as a floor spacer. The 2018 NBA Draft provided an influx of young talent into the league that paid immediate dividends for several teams drafting in the lottery, I wouldn't be surprised if we looked up soon and the consensus has grown that Jaren Jackson Jr is the best player from his draft class.
[youtube https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tI6YZ45NVU0&w=560&h=315]
4. Ben Simmons, Point Guard/Power Forward
Age: 22
As someone who's grown up with access to black hole that is also known as Twitter throughout basically the greater part of my life, one of the first thing's I can tell you about that app is, everyone's day in the fire comes eventually, it's literally unavoidable. Fresh off his extraordinary rookie** of the year campaign, Ben Simmons quickly established himself as one of the most dominant forces in the NBA, joining only Oscar Robertson & Magic Johnson as the only players to ever accumulate 1000 points, 500 rebounds, and 500 assists during his first season.
One of my biggest qualms about the way a large majority of fans and media alike analyze young players is, we spend way more time obsessing and scrutinizing flaws than appreciating the overall package the most talented basketball players in the world bring to the table.
Every time I see the narratives surrounding Ben and the lack of his jumpshot, it makes me feel like my hairline is receding a couple inches at a time. Not to say that this flaw can't be the reason the Sixers upside in the playoffs could be lowered, but let's just put the totality of his package in the proper context and weigh out the positive and negatives.
Nominally, it's true, yes Ben Simmons is a point guard, but I have a difficult time comparing him to other lead ball handlers in a vacuum, Simmons is truthfully his own distinct barbaric lab miscreation. In transition, Simmons is one of the most difficult players in the entire league to slow down once he gets a full head of steam, led the league in points generated off assists due in part to the havoc created whenever he puts his head down and drives to the cup, and his keen understanding of where his teammates are on the court and possessing dexterity to fire passes to whoever's running the break with him.
In the half court a problem we've seen with other ball handlers who lack the threat of a respectable outside shot is, teams sag off and force them into awkward looking jumpshots and floaters, Simmons counters this by being one of the most effective cutters in the league with his perfectly timed dashes to the basket and his 6"10 frame which allows him to punish guards and small forwards in the paint, while also being a dangerous pick and roll diver that allow him counters to stay effective even without the threat of a perimeter game.
The ideology behind Sam Hinkie trading up in the '16 Draft to select Markelle Fultz, sound logic at the time, was in order to give the Sixers an additional ball handler, who could offset Simmons' lack of creation in the pick and roll as a ball handler, provide additional floor spacing due to the threat of an outside shot, and also find someone who could take the burden off Ben in those late game/end of shot clock scenarios.
We're still rooting for you Markelle. The questions surrounding Ben's weaknesses don't diminish the fact his production already puts him comfortably inside the upper quartile of players in the league, due to his playmaking and defensive versatility.
So how exactly do the Sixers optimize the rarity of his skill set? Unleashing Simmons as a point center surrounded by shooters and players who can get up and down the court in transition, and competent wing defenders, in a Warriors-esque depth lineup is something I’m yearning to witness, but due to the presence of Joel Embiid and the recently acquired Al Horford, we probably won’t be seeing much of those lineups any time soon.
Simmons and Embiid are each special players in their own right, but are they the most natural fit together in the frontcourt? The jury is still out, speeding up the pace of the offense would have a huge impact on making the game easier for Simmons, while the slower pace caters to the back to the basket skills of Embiid.
Sixers GM Elton Brand’s main imprint on this roster this summer has been to double down in the opposite direction of league trends and to build around the monstrous trio of multifaceted big men. This speaks in large part to the portability of Ben Simmons skillset, the flexibility he allows from a team building perspective is something that has to be accounted for. Despite his prude nature to avoiding shots from outside the painted area, his ability to operate as a functional lead ball handler while also providing value on the boards and defensively during his first two complete years has returned back to back 50 win seasons for a franchise that hadn't eclipsed that win total since 2000.
So yeah it’s true, Ben Simmons can’t shoot. But we’re still talking about a rare skill set, damn near a walking triple double and a player who raises the floor of your team from a roster construction point of view while making his teammates around him better.
[youtube https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ACOn9QrpOZA&w=560&h=315]
3. Karl Anthony Towns, Center, Minnesota Timberwolves
Age: 22
Towns became the second player in NBA history since the merger to average 20 points and 10 rebounds per game while shooting 50 percent from the field and 40 percent from the 3-point line
Towns currently inhibits a strange reality around the league, he’s coming off his second consecutive all star appearance as a 23 year old center whose shot a ridiculous 41% on volume from the three point line the past two seasons,
With the burden of heavy expectations in the instant gratification society we live in, the pendulum of appreciation for the rarity of his actual skill set feels like it’s being hastily dismissed swept under rug for the latest flavor of the month.
In each of the past three seasons according to the ESPN player rater KAT has finished inside the top 5 overall due to his well rounded fantasy profile.
Towns’ outside-in floor game as a center is what makes him such an enticing prototype busting prospect, as he proved to be a menace on the boards, and a big man who not only can handle the ball with enough agility and ball handling dexterity for a seven footer to attack closeouts from the perimeter, but also knock down jumpers from mid-range and deeper beyond the NBA three point line.
The Dominican center’s feathery touch offensively is a remarkable sight to watch and a major part of why he’s turned into one of the elite offensive centers in the NBA. His bag of traditional post up moves are silky smooth as he can pivot right or left into his soft and accurate hook shots, or create the necessary space for his fadeaway jumper.
Core strength is one of the most difficult facets young players have to analyze from an outsider's perspective to when going up against the other grown behemoths that clog the paint around the league, which is why the viral clips of Towns struggling to establish deep position in the post have made its rounds, but despite all of that he’ll continue to add muscle mass to his frame as he gets closer to his prime to make these concerns minute.
For someone who has extremely nimble feet offensively, Towns can look strangely led footed on defense. Gets caught in an upright defensive stance more than you’d like to see which leads to half hearted lunges to protect the rim and oft a step too slow to cut off lanes and angles that are his defensive responsibility
The New Jersey native possesses all of the tools necessary to be a plus defender in the NBA, he hasn’t proven to be as useless of a defensive deterrent all around as his 2015 draft compadre Jahlill Okafor, but still, he’s left basketball observers puzzled about his value on defense and how that affects building around your franchise centerpiece.
It’s easy to catch amnesia and it to slip your mind that a few short seasons ago following the departure of Kevin Love in Minnesota, it was almost unanimously seen around NBA executives and gasbags alike that the Timberwolves had the most enticing conglomeration of young talent in the league between KAT, Andrew Wiggins, Zach LaVine & company.
High pedigree draft prospects get sent to teams without any semblance of direction, structure or leadership, and I’m not calling the Timberwolves organization a beacon if stability by any means, however the presence of fiery and dedicated characters such as Kevin Garnett, Jimmy Butler, Taj Gibson and Tom Thibodeau being around him during his NBA adolescence thus far means to me this is less about him needing additional guidance but more of a mental issue of less lapses on defense where it seems he’s eagerly anticipating the game to finish so he can stream Fortnite on Twitch for his followers.
If the Dominican 7 footer is being devalued over any of the concerns of his soft streak and falls too far in the first round of redrafts or dynasty leagues feel free taking the discount on the sticker price for one of the most productive young players in the NBA history.
[youtube https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cTvHt1m8ayM&w=560&h=315]
2. Luka Doncic, Point Guard/Forward, Dallas Mavericks
Age: 19
The 2018 rookie of the year race between Donovan Mitchell & Ben Simmons became one of the most exciting award races to follow during the course of the regular season. Ben Simmons hit the ground running during his red shirt freshman season and it abundantly became clear why he was unanimously seen as the number one pick the year prior. Mitchell’s rise from late lottery pick to one of the biggest nightly stories around the league turned into his truthers questioning the validity of Ben Simmons award candidacy since they didn’t deem him to be a true rookie by the categorical definition of the term. Ignoring the reality that Simmons and Mitchell’s birth certificate are only separated in age by 2 months apart, the comical part about the nonsensical argument is that it would’ve actually made much more sense to use that logic on the Slovenian prodigal child.
The child of a former Slovenian professional basketball player, Sasa Doncic. Luka, has routinely polished his craft and tool box playing against older and a lot more established professional basketball players than him since he was an eight year old. He signed the dotted line on his first professional contract at the tender 13 years old, and since then, he has played with the European powerhouse Real Madrid in the Spanish ACB association and in EuroLeague – world renown as two of the most highly skilled and physical basketball leagues outside of the NBA.
Luka brings a flair of expressiveness and fiery competitive nature on the court with him that you love to see, the type of mentality where he’s fully aware of how much of a bad ass he is on the court, and is going to do everything humanly possible to embarrass you, this is probably my favorite thing about the prospects of the duo between him and Kristaps Porzingis as neither fall under the soft and bound to get stepped all over when it matters most European export umbrella.
Players with the high level passing gene that Doncic possess, generally don’t fail in the league because of the numerous paths towards providing surplus offensive value if you can manipulate defenses this well out of the pick and roll.
It becomes abundantly clear after watching the #3 pick in the 2018 NBA Draft for even a short moment that he’s a wizard with the rock. His 6”8 frame combined with his passing capacity enables him to regularly see over the top of the defense and make passes from tight and unorthodox angles that many ball handlers wouldn’t even think about making. The ability to manipulate both help defenders as well as the on ball defender in front of him is advanced stuff for a 20 year old. His feel for pick and roll dynamics is already bordering on a level of mastery, consistently hits open teammates in their shooting pocket so they can rise up for their jump shot in the most efficient biomechanical manner.
Coaches always tell their young ball handlers to be wary of leaving their feet before they intend to make a pass, an easy way to make careless turnovers and find yourself in the doghouse, but this happens to be a specialty for Luka since he’s endowed with great poise and control in these actions, allowing him to survey the court before he fires accurate cross court passes. Doncic’s passing traits shines from everywhere on the court: with the ability to feed his diving big men with perfectly timed pocket passes seen by his phenomenal chemistry with Dwight Powell last season, touch lobs, drive and kicks, as well as when he pushes the break in transition as the ball handler.
There’s the notion floating around in the NBA universe that if you fall anything short of an elite athlete that means you’re easy to guard on the court, and in the case of Doncic, it couldn’t be further from reality. When we talk about about the most skilled players on the court, it really means offensively they possess counters to every possible defensive coverage that could be thrown at them by defenses.
Perhaps my favorite attribute of Doncic’s game is his ability to punish defenses for the attention he brings to the court. Although, he doesn’t create separation with his first step off the dribble, he has an uncanny instinct of when to use timely head fakes on his drives to the rim to give himself additional space necessary to finish among the trees or create lanes to the rim for his bigs, which must drive opposing defenders crazy. Also, constantly exploits over eager off ball defenders looking to cut off driving lanes to the rim by throwing accurate skip passes to his shooters stationed in the corner. Combine all of that with the fact that Luka is actually a swift athlete in tight corners due to his aptitude to quickly decelerate and change gears while reading defenses and we have a special package of offensive skills.
The Slovenian point forward has the tendency to settle for his outside jumper more than you would like, uses threat of him driving all the way to the basket to create for his teammates as much as he does it to score himself. Uses a herky jerk live dribble as a ball handler, which makes it difficult to anticipate whether he’s sizing you up to try and get past you or create space for his patented step back.
A cursory glance at the numbers show, his rookie season 3-point shooting statistics have actually been a tick below league average this season. As he only shot 32 percent on his 514 attempts from deep. A lot of that can be credited to shot selection, as his green light can border upon highly audacious at times, and his first year playing with the NBA three point line. Luka’s current shooting utility profile doesn’t leave me concerned moving forward with his shot as he’s consistently shown enough as a tough shot maker to believe in it going forward, but keep an eye out for how the progression of his pull up jumpshot, as it may be a deciding swing factor of how dangerous of a shooter he can be down the line.
The everlasting dilemma right now surrounding Doncic’s upside is whether his limited athleticism base prevent him having from NBA superstar upside. Pessimists wonder whether he is already near his upside since he has such a developed skill set. Considering the amount of times we’ve seen players bordering on elite athleticism flame out of the league for having low basketball intelligence or an internal drive to be great, this alone makes Luka one of the most stable projections as anyone on this list going forward due to the floor he’s already established between his mix of outside shooting and shot creation.
Random musing:
I love Luka Doncic as much as anyone but I feel like people would be shocked to realize:
For the 2019 season, Deandre Ayton finished on ESPN’s 9category player rater as the 32nd overall best player. Luka finished 64th. The Player Rater isn’t an exact science as players with substandard efficiency or high turnover rates can be severely penalized within the calculus. This is way more about people downplaying Deandre Ayton’s offensive gifts than the hype behind Luka. I didn't agree with Doncic falling to #3 during his draft but after he hit the ground running his success became a proxy to downplay the talents of Ayton, Marvin Bagley, and Trae Young, we don’t have to turn these other guys into a piñata to show the Euro some love
[youtube https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4FnMiOlsSQM&w=560&h=315]
1. Nikola Jokic, Center/Point Guard, Denver Nuggets
Age: 23
40 players were selected before Nikola Jokic in the 2014 Draft, and as he enters the next phase of his career he’s already surpassed all reasonable expectations the world could’ve had for him.
The amount of work needed to reach this plateau of stardom is extensive, concerns about the Joker on defense weren’t enough to stop the Nuggets having the #1 seed in the loaded west for a large majority of the season or from being one game away from the conference finals.
The Serbian superstar has been the engine of one of the leagues most high powered unit's since the Nuggets realized they were sitting on a offensive goldmine. The 7"0 big man wears the crown of perhaps the least athletic All Star in the league with a great sense of pride,
In a league full of ball handlers with extra ordinary passing skills, Nikola's flair for creativity puts him in a category of his own. From a passing hierarchy standpoint, Jokic has a mastery of angles and geometry on the basketball court. The difference between the Joker and other players capable of making advanced reads is that he can at the same time manipulate defenses and create out of thin air opportunities for his teammates to to effectively finish around the basket or soon feed his shooters open looks due to the attention that has to be sent his way.
The 41st pick in the 2015 NBA draft possesses the same trait Aaron Rodgers has where he can fling a pigskin with perfect touch to the precise location he wants and drop it in the bread basket of only his intended receivers catch radius before the defense can even properly adjust or react while the ball is in mid air. The guards and forwards on the Nuggets, have one of the best job in the NBA getting to play besides him, and are probably the hardest cutting team in the league simply due to Jokic's cerebral sense of anticipation as an offensive maestro making it a necessity to have instincts that allow you to flourish without the ball.
From a team building perspective, Jokic’s extraordinary ability to operate as the offensive fulcrum from his one of a kind pseudo “fat point guard” position raises the floor of all of role players surrounding him. Lowering the self creation burden for his teammates around him and as a result raising team wide efficiency off the self creation looks he generates, and quite frankly an attribute that’ll make this iteration of himself a perennial MVP contender, and a fantasy monster going forward, a characteristic that makes him one of the best half court players in the league despite his physical limitations.
Trying to find a base for Jokic as a player comp is an elephantine esque task because he’s truly a one of a kind talent with a skillset and body type that has rarely provided this level of impact plus production. With full season averages a season ago of 20points-11rebounds-7assists it's scary to think about what crazy numbers prime Jokic could put up.
[youtube https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xPbq8dwZH24&w=560&h=315]
Part One:
Part Two:
*All Videos courtesy of: Evin Gualberto, NBA.com, Sacramento Kings, Minnesota Timberwolves, Bleacher Report, Da Infamous NY, Free DawkinsMTA
All statistics courtesy: of Basketball Reference, Cleaning The Glass, B-Ball Index, NBA.com, NBAshotcharts.com, Draft Express**
All ages for the purposes of this exercise are as of 1/1/19**
Recently graduated OR Excluded due to age: Pascal Siakam, Buddy Hield, Julius Randle, Caris LeVert, Montrezl Harrell, Malcolm Brogdon, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Joel Embiid, Derrick White, Jusef Nurkic, Gary Harris, Andrew Wiggins, Kris Dunn
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